Scotiabank's analyst, Greg Harrison, has adjusted his outlook on Apellis (APLS, Financial) by reducing the stock's price target from $28 to $20, while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. This decision follows a disappointing first quarter for the company, as revenues from Syfovre, its treatment for geographic atrophy, fell short of expectations. The shortfall is attributed to insufficient funding for co-pay assistance programs within retinal therapeutics and a reduction in inventory levels. The revised price target reflects the updated sales forecasts for Syfovre.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 20 analysts, the average target price for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) is $38.75 with a high estimate of $75.00 and a low estimate of $18.00. The average target implies an upside of 117.15% from the current price of $17.85. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 23 brokerage firms, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc's (APLS, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) in one year is $226.92, suggesting a upside of 1171.62% from the current price of $17.845. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) Summary page.
APLS Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 07, 2025
- SYFOVRE Net Product Revenue: $130 million for Q1 2025.
- EMPAVELI Net Product Revenue: $20 million for Q1 2025.
- SYFOVRE Injection Demand Growth: 4% quarter-over-quarter increase.
- SYFOVRE Market Share: Over 60% overall market share.
- SYFOVRE New Patient Starts: Exceeded 50% in Q1, reaching 55% by late April.
- Operating Expenses: Expected to remain in line with 2024 levels.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $358 million at the end of Q1 2025.
- EMPAVELI Compliance Rate: 97%.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS, Financial) reported a 4% quarter-over-quarter growth in SYFOVRE injection demand, indicating strong market interest.
- EMPAVELI is advancing towards its second FDA approval with a priority review designation for C3G and IC-MPGN, with a PDUFA date set for July 28.
- The company maintains a strong market leadership in geographic atrophy, with SYFOVRE holding over 60% market share and new patient starts exceeding 50%.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) has executed significant cost savings and maintained financial discipline, keeping 2025 operating expenses in line with 2024.
- The company has $358 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing confidence in funding its business to profitability.
Negative Points
- SYFOVRE revenue fell short of expectations due to funding shortages at third-party co-pay assistance programs and a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown.
- The company faces ongoing challenges with co-pay assistance funding shortages, impacting commercial dose demand and increasing reliance on samples.
- There is uncertainty around the resolution of the co-pay assistance funding issue, which is not expected to be resolved soon.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) has not provided sales guidance for SYFOVRE, citing the need for a more steady state and the upcoming launch of EMPAVELI in new indications.
- The company experienced a decline in EMPAVELI revenue for PNH, attributed to inventory and pricing dynamics, as well as a small decrease in demand.
