DocGo (DCGO, Financial) recently experienced a downgrade from BTIG, shifting from a "Buy" to a "Neutral" rating. This change comes in response to the company's less-than-expected first quarter results, alongside a substantial reduction in its 2025 revenue forecast. According to BTIG, the new guidance suggests a significant 50% drop in revenue compared to the previous year.
The primary reason for this adjustment is DocGo's choice to exclude non-migrant municipal population health revenue from its projections. This decision is attributed to considerable uncertainties within the municipal sector, influenced by fluctuating policies and financial limitations in Washington D.C. BTIG also highlighted ongoing fundamental weaknesses and a persistent lack of clarity in DocGo's business outlook as reasons for the downgrade.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 7 analysts, the average target price for DocGo Inc (DCGO, Financial) is $4.55 with a high estimate of $8.00 and a low estimate of $2.85. The average target implies an upside of 95.28% from the current price of $2.33. More detailed estimate data can be found on the DocGo Inc (DCGO) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 7 brokerage firms, DocGo Inc's (DCGO, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for DocGo Inc (DCGO, Financial) in one year is $6.03, suggesting a upside of 158.8% from the current price of $2.33. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the DocGo Inc (DCGO) Summary page.
DCGO Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- DocGo Inc (DCGO, Financial) is experiencing strong growth in its medical transportation business, with a projected 575,000 total transports by the end of 2025 and potential to reach 700,000 by 2026.
- The company has successfully integrated its technology platform with industry-leading EHRs, providing transparency and securing new contracts with health system partners.
- The payer and provider vertical has shown substantial growth, with assigned lives increasing from 700,000 to over 900,000 in a quarter.
- DocGo Inc (DCGO) has expanded its service offerings by acquiring PTI Health, a mobile lab collection and phlebotomy company, expected to complete over 125,000 blood draws in 2025.
- The company maintains a strong balance sheet, projecting positive cash flow from operations and expecting to end the year with over $110 million in cash, enabling it to be debt-free.
Negative Points
- DocGo Inc (DCGO) has removed its government population health vertical from 2025 guidance due to policy changes and budget cuts, leading to substantial uncertainty and delays in municipal project launches.
- The company revised its 2025 revenue guidance down from $410-$450 million to $300-$330 million, with an expected adjusted EBITDA loss of $20-$30 million.
- There is a significant decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, down to $96 million from $192.1 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to the wind down of migrant-related projects.
- The adjusted gross margin for the mobile health segment decreased from 35.5% in Q1 2024 to 30.8% in Q1 2025, impacted by the early-stage payer and provider business.
- SG&A expenses remain elevated as a percentage of total revenues, increasing from 26.8% in Q1 2024 to 46.7% in Q1 2025, despite efforts to reduce costs.
