Roth Capital's analyst, Chip Moore, has revised the price target for Aspen Aerogels (ASPN, Financial), reducing it to $8 from a previous $16. Despite maintaining a Buy rating, this adjustment follows the company's first-quarter performance and its guidance for the second quarter, which fell short of market expectations.
The analyst highlights significant uncertainty affecting the firm's near-term outlook, primarily due to inventory issues with a major customer and broader economic factors. However, despite these challenges, the analyst believes there is limited downside risk, as current estimates are expected to stabilize. Aspen Aerogels still holds promising long-term opportunities according to Moore's analysis.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 7 analysts, the average target price for Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) is $16.14 with a high estimate of $32.00 and a low estimate of $9.00. The average target implies an upside of 274.54% from the current price of $4.31. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 9 brokerage firms, Aspen Aerogels Inc's (ASPN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) in one year is $16.05, suggesting a upside of 272.39% from the current price of $4.31. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) Summary page.
ASPN Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Revenue: $78.7 million in Q1, a 17% year-over-year decline.
- Energy Industrial Revenue: $29.8 million, a 2% year-over-year increase.
- EV Thermal Barrier Revenue: $48.9 million, a 25% year-over-year decrease.
- Gross Profit Margin: 29% at the company level.
- Energy Industrial Gross Margin: 39%.
- EV Thermal Barrier Gross Margin: 23%.
- Adjusted Operating Income: Negative $2.9 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $4.9 million.
- Net Income: Negative $301.2 million or $3.67 per diluted share.
- Cash Flow from Operations: $5.6 million.
- CapEx: $13 million in Q1.
- Total Debt: $141.8 million at the end of Q1.
- Cash and Equivalents: $192 million at the end of Q1.
- Q2 Revenue Outlook: $70 to $80 million.
- Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: Break-even to $7 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN, Financial) secured a major PyroThin award with GM for a next-generation Prismatic EV platform, demonstrating its value and innovation in the EV battery market.
- The company has successfully built a resilient and flexible supply chain for raw materials and Aerogel, optimizing sourcing from Asia, Europe, and the United States.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) has taken decisive actions to simplify and streamline the company, aiming to reduce fixed cash costs to 2022 levels and lower the revenue level required for positive adjusted EBITDA performance.
- The company has a strong foundation with PyroThin thermal barrier Design Awards from Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Truck, and GM, positioning it for continued platform expansion with existing and new OEMs.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) has a strategic plan to grow its energy industrial business to over $225 million in annual sales and its EV thermal barrier business to potentially over $700 million by 2027.
Negative Points
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) reported a 17% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, reflecting a challenging market environment.
- The company's EV thermal barrier revenue decreased by 25% year-over-year due to lower vehicle production schedules at key customers.
- Gross profit margins for the EV thermal barrier business were below target at 23%, driven by reduced fixed cost leverage and pricing initiatives.
- Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) experienced a negative net income of $301.2 million in Q1, primarily due to significant impairment and restructuring costs.
- The company faces uncertainty in the energy markets and potential impacts from international trade policies, which may affect demand for new vehicles and energy capital projects.
