Raymond James has adjusted its price target for Xponential Fitness (XPOF, Financial), dropping it from $16 to $15 while maintaining a "Strong Buy" recommendation. The analysis highlights Xponential Fitness's dominant role in the expanding boutique fitness sector and emphasizes its numerous growth prospects, which are seen as outweighing potential macroeconomic challenges, competition, or execution risks. Additionally, the firm's analysts express confidence that ongoing investigations by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission do not pose significant threats to the company.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 10 analysts, the average target price for Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF, Financial) is $13.40 with a high estimate of $26.00 and a low estimate of $9.00. The average target implies an upside of 54.02% from the current price of $8.70. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, Xponential Fitness Inc's (XPOF, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF, Financial) in one year is $19.53, suggesting a upside of 124.48% from the current price of $8.7. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) Summary page.
XPOF Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- North American System-Wide Sales: $467 million, up 18% year over year.
- Quarterly Run Rate Average Unit Volumes: $659,000, up 8% year over year.
- Total Members: 865,000, up 12% year over year.
- Same Store Sales: Up 4% year over year.
- Global Open Studios: 3,298, with 116 new openings and 51 closures in Q1.
- Revenue: $76.9 million, down 4% from the prior year period.
- Franchise Revenue: $43.9 million, up 5% year over year.
- Equipment Revenue: $11.1 million, down 20% year over year.
- Merchandise Revenue: $6.3 million, down 25% year over year.
- Franchise Marketing Fund Revenue: $9.3 million, up 18% year over year.
- Net Loss: $2.7 million, or $0.10 per basic share.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $27.3 million, down 9% from the prior year period.
- Cash and Equivalents: $42.6 million as of March 31, 2025.
- Total Long Term Debt: $379.1 million as of March 31, 2025.
- 2025 Revenue Guidance: $315 million to $325 million.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $120 million to $125 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- North American system-wide sales increased by 18% year over year, reaching $467 million.
- Total membership grew by 12% year over year, with 865,000 members at the end of the quarter.
- The company successfully completed its updated financing agreement and filed franchise disclosure documents.
- Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF, Financial) is expanding its international presence, with successful markets in Spain, Portugal, France, Japan, and Australia.
- The company is launching a new field operations function with plans to have 12 field managers in place across North America by the end of the quarter.
Negative Points
- There were 51 global studio closures in the first quarter, representing an annualized closure rate of 6%, with Cyclebar and Stretch Lab being notably affected.
- Revenue for the quarter was down 4% year over year, primarily due to lower merchandise and equipment sales.
- The company recorded a net loss of $2.7 million for the first quarter, with increased legal and settlement expenses contributing to the loss.
- Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 9% compared to the prior year period, impacted by accelerated marketing fund spending.
- The company is facing challenges with delayed studio openings, with approximately one-third of global licenses lagging over 12 months behind the development schedule.
