The Trade Desk Surges 22% on Strong Q1 Results and Improved Guidance

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May 09, 2025

The Trade Desk (TTD, Financial) has made a significant recovery, soaring 22% after releasing a much-improved Q1 report. Previously, the stock had declined in February due to disappointing Q4 results and lower revenue projections. However, this time, the company exceeded expectations in EPS and reported substantial revenue growth. Additionally, TTD provided an optimistic outlook for Q2, contrasting its earlier guidance.

Key Highlights:

  • TTD's macro view indicates that while Q4 was stable, underlying volatility increased post-election. This pressure grew in Q1, affecting its major clients, which include the world's largest brands and their agencies. Despite the volatile environment, TTD aims to provide stability and vision for its clients.
  • Programmatic advertising, TTD's specialty, is highly agile, allowing quick adjustments by evaluating each impression individually. TTD's data-driven approach is beneficial for CMOs and CFOs aiming to optimize resources. TTD continues to focus on capturing market share from competitors, as it did during the pandemic.
  • Kokai, TTD's AI-powered programmatic advertising platform, showed slower-than-expected adoption in Q4. However, adoption accelerated after December, with two-thirds of clients now using it. TTD expects full client adoption by year-end.
  • For Q2, TTD acknowledges the volatile macro environment impacting large global brands. Nevertheless, the company remains optimistic due to Kokai's progress and a growing pipeline of joint business plans. TTD is confident in its ability to gain market share during economic volatility.

Investors welcomed the Q1 report, especially after the rare Q4 revenue miss and lower guidance. The strong results and positive commentary suggest that Q4 was likely an isolated incident rather than a long-term issue. With improved client adoption of Kokai, the previous negativity surrounding the shares appears to have been overestimated, contributing to the significant stock surge.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.