Jefferies has upgraded its rating on Marriott (MAR, Financial) from Hold to Buy, simultaneously raising its price target to $303, an increase from the previous $226. Analysts believe that Marriott's robust business model is well-equipped to thrive despite the present economic uncertainties. The firm suggests that Marriott's ability to sustain and grow its earnings supports a higher valuation, making now an opportune moment for investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 22 analysts, the average target price for Marriott International Inc (MAR, Financial) is $274.82 with a high estimate of $328.00 and a low estimate of $205.00. The average target implies an upside of 6.53% from the current price of $257.97. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Marriott International Inc (MAR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms, Marriott International Inc's (MAR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.6, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Marriott International Inc (MAR, Financial) in one year is $280.38, suggesting a upside of 8.69% from the current price of $257.97. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Marriott International Inc (MAR) Summary page.
MAR Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Net Rooms Growth: Increased by 4.6% over the trailing 12 months.
- Global RevPAR: Rose 4.1%, with ADR increasing 3% and occupancy rising 1 percentage point.
- US and Canada RevPAR: Increased over 3%, driven by luxury and full-service hotels.
- International RevPAR: Up nearly 6%, led by APEC with a 11% increase.
- First Quarter Total Gross Revenues: Increased 5% year over year to $1.28 billion.
- Incentive Management Fees (IMF): Fell 2% to $204 million.
- First Quarter G&A Expense: Declined 6% year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Increased 7%.
- Full Year Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Expected to increase 6 to 9% to $5.3 to $5.4 billion.
- Full Year Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance: Expected to total $9.82 to $10.19.
- Full Year Capital Returns to Shareholders: Expected to be around $4 billion.
- Pipeline Rooms: Over 587,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with 42% under construction.
- Marriott Bonvoy Members: Nearly 237 million members at the end of March.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Marriott International Inc (MAR, Financial) reported strong first quarter results with global RevPAR rising 4.1%, exceeding the top end of their guidance range.
- The company achieved record first quarter global signings, with net rooms growing by 4.6% over the trailing 12 months.
- International RevPAR was up nearly 6%, led by significant growth in the APEC region, particularly in India and Japan.
- The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program continues to expand, reaching nearly 237 million members with a record 68% of room nights globally.
- Marriott International Inc (MAR) is making significant progress on its digital and technology transformation, expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience.
Negative Points
- The company is lowering its full-year RevPAR growth guidance by 50 basis points due to a more cautious outlook in the US and Canada region.
- First quarter RevPAR in Greater China declined by 2% due to a weaker macro environment and tough year-over-year comparisons.
- There is heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US, with concerns about slowing economic activity and lower consumer confidence.
- The US government segment experienced a 10% year-over-year decline in RevPAR, impacting overall performance in the US and Canada region.
- Marriott International Inc (MAR) faces challenges with construction costs and a challenging financing environment in the US and Europe, affecting new construction projects.
