Kaspi.kz (KSPI, Financial) is forecasting a 15% increase in consolidated net income for 2025, excluding its operations in Turkey. This projection, while more conservative than their earlier estimate of 20%, still indicates a solid growth in net income. The company notes that if the currently high deposit rates decline, it would positively impact their earnings growth. Additionally, they view Hepsiburada and the Turkish market as significant opportunities in the medium term.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI, Financial) is $131.55 with a high estimate of $148.63 and a low estimate of $113.72. The average target implies an upside of 45.99% from the current price of $90.11. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 8 brokerage firms, Kaspi.kz JSC's (KSPI, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI, Financial) in one year is $136.00, suggesting a upside of 50.93% from the current price of $90.11. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) Summary page.
KSPI Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 24, 2025
- Payments TPV Growth: 30% in Q4.
- Payments Net Income Growth: 22% in Q4.
- Payments Revenue Growth: 19% in Q4.
- Marketplace GMV Growth: 39% in Q4.
- Marketplace Revenue Growth: 43% in Q4.
- Marketplace Net Income Growth: 32% in Q4.
- Fintech Financing Volumes Growth: 21% in Q4.
- Fintech Net Income Growth: 28% in Q4.
- Consolidated Revenue Growth: 28% in Q4.
- Consolidated Net Income Growth: 28% in Q4.
- Annual Revenue Growth: 32% for 2024.
- Annual Net Income Growth: 25% for 2024.
- e-Grocery GMV Growth: 97% in 2024.
- e-Grocery Transactions Growth: 84% in 2024.
- Delivered Orders Growth: 128% in 2024.
- Kaspi POS Register Usage: 35% of merchants.
- Advertising Service Usage: 51,000 merchants.
- Business Deposit Growth: 443% in 2024.
- Loan Origination Growth: 21% in Q4.
- Loan Portfolio Growth: 37% in Q4.
- Deposits Growth: 23% in Q4.
- Fintech Revenue Growth: 26% in Q4.
- Fintech Bottom Line Growth: 28% in Q4.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI, Financial) reported strong growth across all platforms, with payments TPV growing 30% and marketplace GMV increasing by 39% in Q4 2024.
- The company's fintech business showed significant improvement, with financing volumes growing 21% and net income increasing by 28% in Q4 2024.
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) continues to diversify its revenue streams, with a balanced contribution from payments, marketplace, and fintech platforms.
- The e-Grocery segment demonstrated impressive growth, with GMV increasing by 97% and transactions by 84% in 2024.
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) successfully launched new products like gift cards and business deposits, which have been well-received by consumers and merchants.
Negative Points
- The company's fintech revenue growth was slower than expected, with a 12% increase for the full year, partly due to rising interest rates in December.
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) faces challenges in maintaining fintech margins due to yield dilution and higher interest rates.
- The geopolitical environment in Kazakhstan and regional conflicts could impact investor perception and economic stability.
- Currency volatility remains a concern, with the tenge weaker against the dollar, affecting financial results in dollar terms.
- The integration and strategic direction of Hepsiburada, a recent acquisition, remain uncertain, with potential challenges in aligning operations and management.
