Coinbase (COIN, Financial) has been upgraded by Monness Crespi from a Neutral to a Buy rating, accompanied by a new price target of $300. This optimistic outlook stems from the company's projected Q2 earnings guidance, which anticipates $600 million to $680 million in revenue from subscriptions and services. Analysts believe this projection is conservative given the strong performance of key assets like Ethereum and Solana, which could enhance blockchain rewards and custody revenues.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 26 analysts, the average target price for Coinbase Global Inc (COIN, Financial) is $261.80 with a high estimate of $400.00 and a low estimate of $185.00. The average target implies an upside of 26.34% from the current price of $207.22. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 31 brokerage firms, Coinbase Global Inc's (COIN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.4, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Coinbase Global Inc (COIN, Financial) in one year is $209.29, suggesting a upside of 1% from the current price of $207.22. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) Summary page.
COIN Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Revenue: $2 billion in total revenue for Q1 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $930 million.
- Net Income: $66 million.
- Adjusted Net Income: $527 million.
- Transaction Revenue: $1.3 billion, down 19% quarter over quarter.
- Subscription and Services Revenue: $698 million, up 9% quarter over quarter.
- Stablecoin Revenue: $298 million, up 32% quarter over quarter.
- Consumer Trading Volume: $78 billion, down 17%.
- Institutional Trading Volume: $315 billion, down 9%.
- Total Operating Expenses: $1.3 billion, up 7%.
- USDC Market Cap: $60 billion, with average USDC held in Coinbase products increasing 49% quarter over quarter to $12 billion.
- Base Stablecoin Balances: $4 billion, up 12% quarter over quarter.
- Deribit Acquisition: Acquired for approximately $2.9 billion, enhancing profitability and trading revenues.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Coinbase Global Inc (COIN, Financial) reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with $2 billion in revenue and $930 million in adjusted EBITDA.
- The company announced the acquisition of Deribit, making Coinbase the number one crypto derivative platform globally by open interest.
- Coinbase's USDC stablecoin hit a market cap all-time high of $60 billion, with average USDC held in Coinbase products increasing by 49% quarter over quarter.
- The company expanded its international presence by securing new licenses in Argentina and India, unlocking access to fast-growing crypto markets.
- Coinbase achieved a major judicial win with the dismissal of the SEC lawsuit, marking a significant milestone for the industry and regulatory clarity.
Negative Points
- Transaction revenue declined by 19% quarter over quarter, with consumer trading volume down 17% and institutional trading volume down 9%.
- The company is offering trading rebates and incentives to build liquidity in its derivatives trading business, impacting transaction revenue negatively.
- Macro uncertainty and global trade policy concerns may contribute to softer crypto trading markets and lower asset prices in Q2.
- Spot transaction volume declined approximately 12% month over month in April, reflecting broader market trends.
- The acquisition of Deribit involves a significant financial commitment of approximately $2.9 billion, which includes $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Class A common stock.
