Significant bullish option activity was observed in AES Corp. (AES, Financial), where 10,818 call options were traded, surpassing expectations by 70%. The implied volatility rose nearly two percentage points to reach 41.60%. Among the most active options were the August 25th $11 puts and June 25th $12 calls, with a combined volume close to 5,600 contracts. The current Put/Call Ratio stands at 0.52, indicating a predominance of call options. Investors are watching closely as AES is set to announce its earnings on August 7th.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for The AES Corp (AES, Financial) is $13.93 with a high estimate of $23.00 and a low estimate of $7.00. The average target implies an upside of 11.83% from the current price of $12.46. More detailed estimate data can be found on the The AES Corp (AES) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, The AES Corp's (AES, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for The AES Corp (AES, Financial) in one year is $18.59, suggesting a upside of 49.26% from the current price of $12.455. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the The AES Corp (AES) Summary page.
AES Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 02, 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA: $591 million for Q1 2025, compared to $640 million in Q1 2024.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.27 for Q1 2025, down from $0.50 in Q1 2024.
- Asset Sale Proceeds: Achieved target with $450 million from the sale of a minority stake in AGIC.
- Renewables EBITDA Growth: Approximately 45% year-over-year increase.
- Backlog: 11.7 gigawatts of signed long-term contracts.
- Capital Investment: $1.4 billion planned for AES Indiana and AES Ohio in 2025.
- Debt Issuance: Completed all financings needed for 2025 debt maturities.
- Cost Savings: $150 million expected in 2025, with a full run rate of over $300 million by next year.
- Dividend Increase: 2% increase announced for 2025.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- The AES Corp (AES, Financial) reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and long-term growth rate targets, indicating strong execution and business resilience.
- The company completed the construction of 643 megawatts and signed or were awarded 443 megawatts of new PPAs, increasing its backlog to 11.7 gigawatts.
- AES achieved its asset sale proceeds target for the year, including a $450 million sale of a minority stake in its global insurance company.
- The company's supply chain strategy protects it from potential tariffs and inflation, with nearly all US CapEx protected and minimal tariff exposure.
- AES's US utilities are undergoing the largest investment program in their history, with $1.4 billion planned for 2025 to improve customer reliability and support economic development.
Negative Points
- Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $591 million, down from $640 million a year ago, primarily due to prior year revenues from the accelerated monetization of the Warrior Run PPA and the sale of AES Brazil.
- Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.27, down from $0.50 last year, impacted by higher parent interest and prior year tax benefits.
- The company faces a potential $50 million tariff exposure related to a small quantity of batteries imported from Korea for projects coming online in 2026.
- Lower EBITDA was reported in the energy infrastructure SBU due to prior year revenues from the accelerated monetization of the coal PPA at Warrior Run and the movement of Chile renewables to the renewables segment.
- The company anticipates higher interest and a higher adjusted tax rate impacting growth in the remaining quarters of 2025.
