Albertsons (ACI, Financial) is experiencing notable bearish options activity, with 1,097 put contracts traded, surpassing the anticipated volume by 1.3 times. The most traded options include the May-25 22 puts and the Jun-25 22 calls, with combined activity nearing 1,100 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio stands at a significant 4.92, indicating a strong bearish sentiment. Additionally, the at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) has increased by over five points in a single day. Investors are anticipating the company's earnings report, scheduled for release on July 22nd.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 14 analysts, the average target price for Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI, Financial) is $24.07 with a high estimate of $28.00 and a low estimate of $20.00. The average target implies an upside of 9.49% from the current price of $21.99. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 21 brokerage firms, Albertsons Companies Inc's (ACI, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.4, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI, Financial) in one year is $21.67, suggesting a downside of 1.43% from the current price of $21.985. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI) Summary page.
ACI Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 15, 2025
- ID Sales Growth: 2.3% in the fourth quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $855 million for the fourth quarter.
- Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.46 per diluted share in Q4.
- Gross Margin: 27.4% in Q4, excluding fuel and LIFO expense.
- SG&A Expense Rate: 25.7% in Q4, with a 5 basis point decrease excluding fuel.
- Interest Expense: $101.5 million in Q4, a decrease of $7.5 million.
- Capital Expenditures: $485 million in Q4, primarily for store fleet modernization and digital technology platforms.
- New Stores and Remodels: 11 new stores opened and 127 stores remodeled in fiscal year 2024.
- Net Debt Leverage: 1.9 times at the end of Q4.
- Pharmacy Revenue Growth: 18% year-over-year increase in Q4.
- Digital Sales Growth: 24% increase in Q4.
- Loyalty Membership Growth: Over 15% year-over-year increase to more than 45 million members in Q4.
- E-commerce Penetration: Over 8% of grocery revenue in Q4.
- 2025 Outlook - ID Sales Growth: Expected range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
- 2025 Outlook - Adjusted EBITDA: Expected range of $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion.
- 2025 Outlook - Adjusted EPS: Expected range of $2.03 to $2.16.
- 2025 Outlook - Capital Expenditures: Expected range of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI, Financial) reported a 2.3% increase in identical sales for the fourth quarter, driven by strong growth in pharmacy and digital sales.
- E-commerce sales grew by 24% in the fourth quarter, with penetration now over 8% of grocery revenue, highlighting significant growth potential.
- The loyalty program saw a 15% increase in membership, reaching over 45 million members, enhancing customer engagement and data collection.
- Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI) is investing in technology and AI to modernize operations, aiming for $1.5 billion in productivity savings from 2025 to 2027.
- The company is committed to community support, contributing over $435 million in food and financial aid in 2024, with a goal to enable 1.5 billion meals by 2030.
Negative Points
- Despite growth in digital and pharmacy sales, the gross margin decreased by 45 basis points due to lower-margin pharmacy sales and increased digital delivery costs.
- The adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $855 million, down from $916 million the previous year, indicating margin pressures.
- Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI) faces inflationary pressures, necessitating strategic price investments in certain categories and markets.
- The company anticipates short-term margin headwinds due to continued investments in digital growth and customer value propositions.
- Wage rate pressures are expected to remain high in 2025, similar to 2024 levels, impacting overall cost structure.
