A recent assessment by a Veritas analyst, Darryl McCoubrey, has led to a downgrade of Cenovus Energy (CVE, Financial). The company's stock rating was shifted from Buy to Reduce, reflecting a more cautious outlook. The analyst has set a price target of C$19 for the stock, indicating potential concerns about its future performance.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 9 analysts, the average target price for Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE, Financial) is $18.36 with a high estimate of $21.71 and a low estimate of $16.00. The average target implies an upside of 31.77% from the current price of $13.93. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 9 brokerage firms, Cenovus Energy Inc's (CVE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.1, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE, Financial) in one year is $14.45, suggesting a upside of 3.73% from the current price of $13.93. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) Summary page.
CVE Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Upstream Production: 819,000 BOE per day.
- Christina Lake Production: 238,000 barrels per day.
- Foster Creek Production: 203,000 barrels per day.
- Sunrise Production: 52,000 barrels per day.
- Operating Margin: $2.8 billion.
- Adjusted Funds Flow: Approximately $2.2 billion.
- Oil Sands Nonfuel Operating Costs: $8.92 per barrel.
- Canadian Refining Utilization Rate: 104%.
- Capital Investment: $1.2 billion.
- Free Funds Flow: Approximately $1 billion.
- Net Debt: Approximately $5.1 billion.
- Shareholder Returns: $595 million through dividends, share buybacks, and redemption of preferred shares.
- Dividend Increase: 11% increase to $0.80 per share annually.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE, Financial) reported strong upstream production of 819,000 BOE per day, with impressive results from the oil sands business, particularly at Christina Lake.
- The Narrows Lake project, connected to the Christina Lake plant, is expected to begin production early in the third quarter, showcasing significant engineering achievements.
- The company achieved record quarterly throughput and utilization rate of 104% in Canadian refining, benefiting from improvements made during the previous year's upgrader turnaround.
- Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) increased its annual base dividend by 11% to $0.80 per share, supported by a $45 per barrel WTI oil price, reflecting confidence in future growth.
- The company is making significant progress on the West White Rose project, with major components set for installation this summer, positioning for first oil in the second quarter of 2026.
Negative Points
- The downstream segment experienced an operating margin shortfall of approximately $240 million due to seasonally low Chicago crack spreads and tighter heavy oil differentials.
- The US refining business faced challenges with turnaround costs and lower market capture rates, impacting overall financial performance.
- Net debt remains elevated at approximately $5.1 billion, above the company's $4 billion target, despite efforts to prioritize the balance sheet.
- Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE) is undergoing a heavy period of turnarounds in both upstream and downstream operations, which could impact short-term production and financial results.
- The company is in a holding pattern regarding discussions with federal and provincial governments on the Pathways Alliance, which could affect future project developments.
