Cantor Fitzgerald has revised its price target for Exagen (XGN, Financial), reducing it from $8 to $7 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. This adjustment comes after the company disclosed its first-quarter results, provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, and completed an equity raise after the quarter ended. Despite the price target reduction, Cantor remains optimistic about Exagen's potential. The firm is enthusiastic about Exagen's introduction of new markers designed to enhance sensitivity, which is anticipated to increase adoption rates and improve the average selling price.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 4 analysts, the average target price for Exagen Inc (XGN, Financial) is $7.75 with a high estimate of $9.00 and a low estimate of $7.00. The average target implies an upside of 33.16% from the current price of $5.82. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Exagen Inc (XGN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 6 brokerage firms, Exagen Inc's (XGN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Exagen Inc (XGN, Financial) in one year is $3.55, suggesting a downside of 39% from the current price of $5.82. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Exagen Inc (XGN) Summary page.
XGN Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 05, 2025
- Revenue: $15.5 million, nearly 8% increase compared to Q1 2024.
- Average Selling Price (ASP): Trailing-12-month ASP at $419 per test.
- Gross Margin: 58.9%, slightly down from 59.6% in 2024.
- Operating Expenses: $12.5 million, a 7.5% increase over 2024.
- Net Loss: $3.8 million compared to $3.4 million in Q1 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA Loss: $2.5 million versus $2 million in Q1 2024.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: Just over $11 million at the end of Q1 2025.
- Accounts Receivable: Just under $15 million at the end of Q1 2025.
- Full-Year Revenue Guidance: At least $65 million for 2025.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Exagen Inc (XGN, Financial) reported its ninth consecutive quarter of increasing trailing 12-month average selling price (ASP), demonstrating consistent revenue growth.
- The company successfully won its first Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) hearing, setting a positive precedent for future reimbursement appeals.
- Exagen Inc secured a positive medical policy with TRICARE, potentially increasing ASP and expanding market access.
- The launch of new biomarkers contributed to a 6% increase in testing volume over the previous quarter, indicating strong market adoption.
- The company improved its financial position with a new credit facility from Perceptive Advisors, providing flexibility for future growth initiatives.
Negative Points
- Gross margin slightly decreased to 58.9% from 59.6% in the previous year, with expectations for improvement later in the year.
- Operating expenses increased by 7.5% year-over-year, driven by R&D and SG&A expenses, impacting profitability.
- The net loss for the first quarter was $3.8 million, compared to $3.4 million in the same period last year.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss was $2.5 million, slightly deeper than expected, raising concerns about reaching profitability targets.
- The company faces challenges in fully educating physicians about new biomarkers, which may take the majority of the year to achieve.
