An analyst from Baird, Jonathan Komp, has elevated the price target for Boot Barn (BOOT, Financial) to $180, up from the previous $140, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. This adjustment follows the impressive results reported in the fourth quarter, showcasing Boot Barn's exceptional execution and robust market position.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) is $161.31 with a high estimate of $200.00 and a low estimate of $100.00. The average target implies an upside of 21.43% from the current price of $132.84. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, Boot Barn Holdings Inc's (BOOT, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) in one year is $114.34, suggesting a downside of 13.93% from the current price of $132.84. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) Summary page.
BOOT Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 14, 2025
- Full-Year Revenue: $1.9 billion, a record level.
- Fourth-Quarter Revenue Increase: 17%.
- Fourth-Quarter Same-Store Sales Increase: 6%.
- Fourth-Quarter Merchandise Margin Expansion: 210 basis points.
- Full-Year Earnings Per Diluted Share: $5.88, a 23% increase.
- Fourth-Quarter Earnings Per Diluted Share: $1.22, up from $0.96 in the prior year.
- New Stores Opened in Fiscal '25: 60 new stores.
- Total Stores at Year-End: 459 stores.
- Fourth-Quarter Gross Profit Increase: 21% to $169 million.
- Fourth-Quarter Gross Profit Rate: 37.1%, up 130 basis points.
- Fourth-Quarter SG&A Expenses: $119 million or 26.2% of sales.
- Fourth-Quarter Net Income Per Diluted Share: $1.22.
- Inventory Increase: 25% to $747 million.
- Cash at Year-End: $70 million with zero drawn on $250 million credit line.
- Fiscal '26 Revenue Guidance (High End): $2.15 billion.
- Fiscal '26 Earnings Per Diluted Share Guidance (High End): $6.40.
- Fiscal '26 New Store Openings Plan: 65 to 70 new stores.
- Share Repurchase Program: Up to $200 million authorized.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT, Financial) achieved a record full-year fiscal 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, marking significant growth over the past four years.
- The company opened 60 new stores in fiscal 2025, expanding into four new states, and plans to open 65 to 70 new stores in fiscal 2026.
- Fourth-quarter revenue increased by 17%, with consolidated same-store sales rising by 6%, driven by strong performance in both physical stores and e-commerce.
- Merchandise margin expanded by 210 basis points in the fourth quarter, contributing to a 23% increase in earnings per diluted share for the year.
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) has successfully reduced its reliance on Chinese factories for exclusive brand products, with only 5% expected to be produced in China by the second half of fiscal 2026.
Negative Points
- The company faces ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs, which could impact consumer demand and merchandise margins in the second half of fiscal 2026.
- Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) anticipates an $8 million incremental cost due to tariffs, affecting the second half of fiscal 2026.
- The work boots business experienced low-single-digit negative growth, indicating challenges in this category.
- The company expects potential softness in consumer demand due to anticipated price increases from third-party vendors.
- SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales slightly deleveraged by 10 basis points, primarily due to higher legal expenses and store payroll.
