Singapore just clocked a 12.4% surge in non-oil exports for April—the fastest pace in nine months. What's driving the spike? A mad dash to ship out goods before the Trump administration's new tariff wave hits. After global markets took a nosedive, Trump paused the rollout for 90 days, but most trading partners, including Singapore, are still facing a baseline 10% duty. That's led manufacturers to hit the gas while they can. As Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong put it: some companies are seizing the opportunity, though the mood is far from celebratory.
The concern? This is a sugar high. Singapore officials are already warning that once the rush is over, exports and production could stall. The country just cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1–3% to 0–2%. And they're not ruling out a recession if tariffs go full blast. That matters for anyone with supply chain exposure in Southeast Asia—especially multinationals that rely on complex just-in-time logistics out of the region.
The short-term bump may look good on paper, but investors should think two steps ahead. Front-loading today could mean margin compression or inventory hangovers tomorrow. If the U.S. revives steep tariffs in full, expect the next move to show up not in trade data—but in earnings calls, manufacturing downgrades, and global portfolio rebalancing.
