Options trading for Trip.com (TCOM, Financial) is experiencing a significant uptick as the company approaches its earnings announcement. The volume of options is currently 1.6 times above average levels, with call options surpassing puts in a 3:2 ratio. This heightened activity reflects market anticipation of a potential stock movement of approximately 4.5%, or $3.03, following the release of the earnings report. Historically, the stock has shown a median movement of 6.0% over the last eight quarters post-earnings. Investors are closely watching the developments as they prepare for the company's next financial report.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 29 analysts, the average target price for Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM, Financial) is $74.17 with a high estimate of $94.98 and a low estimate of $56.99. The average target implies an upside of 11.66% from the current price of $66.43. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 29 brokerage firms, Trip.com Group Ltd's (TCOM, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM, Financial) in one year is $69.93, suggesting a upside of 5.27% from the current price of $66.43. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Summary page.
TCOM Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 25, 2025
- Net Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB12.7 billion, a 23% increase year over year.
- Net Revenue (Full Year 2024): RMB53.3 billion, a 20% increase year over year.
- Accommodation Reservation Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB5.2 billion, a 33% increase year over year.
- Accommodation Reservation Revenue (Full Year 2024): RMB21.6 billion, a 25% increase year over year.
- Transportation Ticketing Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB4.8 billion, a 16% increase year over year.
- Transportation Ticketing Revenue (Full Year 2024): RMB20.3 billion, a 10% increase year over year.
- Packaged Tour Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB870 million, a 24% increase year over year.
- Packaged Tour Revenue (Full Year 2024): RMB4.3 billion, a 38% increase year over year.
- Corporate Travel Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB702 million, an 11% increase year over year.
- Corporate Travel Revenue (Full Year 2024): RMB2.5 billion, an 11% increase year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2024): RMB3.0 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year 2024): RMB17.1 billion, a 22% growth year over year.
- Diluted Earnings per ADS (Q4 2024): RMB3.09 or USD0.42.
- Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings per ADS (Q4 2024): RMB4.35 or USD0.6.
- Diluted Earnings per ADS (Full Year 2024): RMB24.78 or USD3.39.
- Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings per ADS (Full Year 2024): RMB26.20 or USD3.59.
- Cash and Cash Equivalents (as of Dec 31, 2024): RMB90 billion or USD12.3 billion.
- Share Repurchase Program (2025): Up to USD400 million.
- Cash Dividend (2025): Totaling approximately USD200 million, $0.30 per ordinary share and per ADS.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM, Financial) reported a 23% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q4 2024, reflecting strong travel demand.
- The company's international business showed robust growth, representing 14% of group revenue in Q4 2024.
- TripGenie, an AI tool, saw a 200% surge in traffic and a 100% increase in browsing time in 2024.
- Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded 120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the industry by 30% to 40%.
- Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) has been recognized with multiple accolades for customer service, including Contact Center of the Year and Global Support Services of the Year.
Negative Points
- Net revenue for Q4 2024 decreased by 20% from the previous quarter.
- Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 2024 decreased by 24% quarter over quarter.
- Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 2024 decreased by 15% quarter over quarter.
- Adjusted sales and marketing expenses increased by 45% year over year for Q4 2024.
- The company faces headwinds in certain major destinations affecting outbound travel demand.
