Citi has adjusted its price outlook for Autodesk (ADSK, Financial), elevating the target to $374 from the previous figure of $346, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. Although the firm's reseller survey presented mixed outcomes, it showed a slight increase in growth expectations for the upcoming year. However, quota attainment levels remain low. The analyst suggests that Autodesk's initial forecast is wisely cautious and anticipates a modest outperformance in the first-quarter revenue results, albeit with minimal adjustments to the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance due to tariff considerations. The revenue goals for FY26 are now centered on the midpoint of guidance, underpinning Citi's raised price target, supported by higher valuation multiples.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 27 analysts, the average target price for Autodesk Inc (ADSK, Financial) is $312.44 with a high estimate of $370.00 and a low estimate of $250.00. The average target implies an upside of 6.13% from the current price of $294.39. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 32 brokerage firms, Autodesk Inc's (ADSK, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Autodesk Inc (ADSK, Financial) in one year is $309.29, suggesting a upside of 5.06% from the current price of $294.385. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Summary page.
ADSK Key Business Developments
Release Date: February 27, 2025
- Total Revenue Growth: 12% in the fourth quarter, both as reported and in constant currency.
- AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT Revenue Growth: 9% in constant currency.
- AECO Revenue Growth: 15% in constant currency.
- Manufacturing Revenue Growth: 10% in constant currency, and in the low teens excluding upfront revenue.
- M&E Revenue Growth: 10% in constant currency.
- Regional Revenue Growth: 11% in the Americas, 13% in EMEA, and 11% in APAC, all in constant currency.
- Direct Revenue Increase: 35% in constant currency, representing 47% of total revenue.
- Billings Increase: 24% in the quarter at constant currency.
- RPO and Current RPO Growth: RPO at $6.9 billion grew 14%, and current RPO at $4.5 billion grew 12%.
- GAAP Operating Margin: 22% in the fourth quarter.
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 37% in the fourth quarter.
- Free Cash Flow: $1.57 billion for fiscal '25.
- Share Repurchase: Approximately 1.4 million shares for $414 million in the fourth quarter; 3.1 million shares for $858 million for the full year.
- Fiscal '26 Free Cash Flow Guidance: Between $2.075 billion and $2.175 billion.
- Fiscal '26 Share Buyback Guidance: Between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Autodesk Inc (ADSK, Financial) delivered strong fourth-quarter and full-year results, with revenue and billings exceeding expectations despite foreign exchange headwinds.
- The company is reallocating resources to focus on strategic priorities such as cloud, platform, and AI, which are expected to drive future growth.
- Autodesk Inc (ADSK) reported a 12% revenue growth in the fourth quarter, with broad-based growth across products and regions.
- The company achieved a 24% increase in billings at constant currency, reflecting a shift to annual billing for multi-year contracts.
- Autodesk Inc (ADSK) plans to buy back $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of shares in fiscal '26, a 30% to 40% increase compared to fiscal '25.
Negative Points
- The company is undergoing restructuring, which may cause some disruption despite mitigation plans.
- Autodesk Inc (ADSK) acknowledged that the 10% to 15% growth framework is no longer appropriate given current business momentum.
- There are potential headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical factors affecting customer sentiment.
- The transition to a new transaction model and annual billing for multi-year contracts may impact short-term revenue growth.
- The company is facing challenges in new business growth, which has been slow due to economic uncertainty and internal changes.
