Tesla (TSLA, Financial) overtakes Lucid in Cantor's EV showdown, driven by scale advantages and a pipeline of near-term catalysts. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard favors Tesla over Lucid (LCID, Financial) as the better U.S. EV play, citing Tesla's $1.1 trillion market cap—over four times Toyota's—versus Lucid's much smaller footprint.
Tesla's first quarter underscored both headwinds and strengths: automotive revenue slid 9.2 % year-over-year to $14 billion, dragging total top-line to $19.34 billion and missing consensus by over $2 billion, while energy generation and storage revenues jumped 67 % to $2.73 billion.
EPS came in at $0.27, $0.15 below forecasts, yet shares have rallied about 47 % since the April 22 report on easing tariff tensions and Musk's pledge to refocus on Tesla. Lucid, by contrast, remains unprofitable and far smaller in deliveries and scale.
Sheppard's bullish case rests on a slate of catalysts: next month's Robotaxi launch in Texas; a lower-priced $30,000 model debut in H1 25; ongoing Full Self-Driving rollouts in China and planned European launches; Optimus humanoid robot production in 2026 with customer deliveries by 2027; and the long-awaited Semi Truck entering production in 2026. He also highlighted Musk's commitment to dial back on Dogecoin distractions and double down on Tesla operations.
Why It Matters: Tesla's combination of scale, diversified revenue streams and a clear catalyst roadmap contrasts with Lucid's smaller, cash-burning model, positioning TSLA to capture the next leg of EV growth.
