Ontrak (OTRK, Financial) has announced its anticipated revenue for the second quarter, projecting a range between $2.2 million and $2.6 million. This estimate falls short of the previous forecast of $3.8 million by analysts. Investors are closely watching these developments as the company adjusts its outlook for the financial period.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 1 analysts, the average target price for Ontrak Inc (OTRK, Financial) is $4.00 with a high estimate of $4.00 and a low estimate of $4.00. The average target implies an upside of 154.78% from the current price of $1.57. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Ontrak Inc (OTRK) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 1 brokerage firms, Ontrak Inc's (OTRK, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Ontrak Inc (OTRK, Financial) in one year is $1.19, suggesting a downside of 24.2% from the current price of $1.57. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Ontrak Inc (OTRK) Summary page.
OTRK Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 14, 2025
- Revenue: $3.1 million in Q4, an 11% decrease year-over-year.
- Gross Margin: 61% in Q4, down from 62% in Q3 2024 and 64.6% in Q4 2023.
- Operating Cash Flow: Negative $4.3 million in Q4.
- Cash Reserves: $5.7 million at year-end, down from $9.7 million the previous year.
- Revenue per Member: Approximately $500 per month, down from $546 in Q4 2023.
- Membership Enrollment: 1,641 new members in Q4, highest since Q3 2021.
- Disenrollment Rate: 19% in Q4, compared to 11% in Q3 2024 and 16% in Q4 2023.
- Q1 2025 Revenue Guidance: Expected to be between $2 million and $2.3 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Ontrak Inc (OTRK, Financial) secured three new regional health plan customers and four health plan expansions in the last 14 months, showcasing the versatility of their offerings.
- The launch of the WholeHealth+ solution with Intermountain Health is progressing well, with over 325 members enrolled in just over a month.
- Ontrak Inc (OTRK) is in late-stage strategic discussions with a large Midwest plan, which could potentially double the company's run rate revenue.
- The company has been designated as a value-based provider, allowing for greater access to reimbursable fees and reshaping their economic model.
- Ontrak Inc (OTRK) has a strong sales pipeline with six active prospects requesting financial and clinical proposals, representing significant potential revenue opportunities.
Negative Points
- Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the loss of a customer.
- The company anticipates a sequential revenue decrease of 27% to 36% in Q1 2025 due to the lost customer and new customers still in the ramp-up phase.
- Gross margins decreased slightly to 61% in Q4 2024, with expectations to decrease further into the mid-50s due to current pricing and revenue mix.
- Operating cash flow for Q4 was negative $4.3 million, a deterioration from the previous quarters.
- Ontrak Inc (OTRK) is actively seeking financing options to access capital needed for executing their sales pipeline and business plan.
