Progressive Corporation (PGR, Financial) has reported an increase in net premiums written, reaching $6.84 billion compared to $6.18 billion in the previous year. Additionally, the company revealed that net premiums earned climbed to $6.64 billion from last year's $5.6 billion. Notably, PGR's combined ratio improved, declining to 84.9% from 89% a year ago, indicating better efficiency in underwriting and claims management.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 16 analysts, the average target price for Progressive Corp (PGR, Financial) is $301.94 with a high estimate of $328.00 and a low estimate of $266.00. The average target implies an upside of 5.71% from the current price of $285.63. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Progressive Corp (PGR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 22 brokerage firms, Progressive Corp's (PGR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Progressive Corp (PGR, Financial) in one year is $254.97, suggesting a downside of 10.73% from the current price of $285.63. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Progressive Corp (PGR) Summary page.
PGR Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Personal Auto New Applications: Surpassed previous record by over 20% compared to first quarter 2023.
- Core Commercial Auto New Applications: Increased by 8% year over year.
- Combined Ratios: Personal auto, property products, and commercial lines have year-to-date combined ratios below 90.
- Investment Income: Increased by 32% compared to the first quarter of the previous year, averaging over $270 million a month year-to-date.
- Common Equities: Comprise only 4% of the total portfolio, largely insulated from stock market volatility.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Progressive Corp (PGR, Financial) reported one of its best quarters ever with near-record margins and record growth.
- The company achieved a 20% increase in personal auto new applications compared to the previous record, indicating strong customer acquisition and conversion rates.
- Progressive Corp (PGR) maintained a strong balance sheet with common equities only 4% of the total portfolio, insulating it from stock market volatility.
- Investment income for the quarter was 32% greater than the first quarter of the previous year, averaging over $270 million a month year-to-date.
- The company has been proactive in modeling various scenarios to assess the impact of potential tariffs, demonstrating preparedness for future challenges.
Negative Points
- The macroeconomic effects of tariffs present uncertainties that could impact future loss costs and profitability.
- The trucking space within commercial lines remains challenging, despite growth in core commercial auto applications.
- Policy life expectancy has been lighter, reflecting increased shopping behavior and industry dynamics.
- The competitive environment is intensifying as competitors return to growth mode, potentially impacting Progressive Corp (PGR)'s growth trajectory.
- Retention rates have declined, influenced by increased shopping and competitive pressures, despite strong growth in renewal applications.
