Truist analyst Jake Bartlett has increased the price target for Cracker Barrel (CBRL, Financial) from $55 to $63, maintaining a Buy rating prior to the company's third-quarter earnings results. Despite potential concerns about the impact of weather and calendar variations on earnings, which could unsettle investors, the stock has seen a 25% increase this month. Moreover, the firm highlights a positive start to Cracker Barrel's fourth quarter. According to Truist’s card data, the company's performance has been robust since the introduction of its Summer Menu on May 6th. These insights contribute to the firm’s optimistic outlook for Cracker Barrel's upcoming financial performance.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 7 analysts, the average target price for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) is $46.00 with a high estimate of $55.00 and a low estimate of $39.00. The average target implies an downside of 17.33% from the current price of $55.64. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc's (CBRL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 3.2, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) in one year is $81.70, suggesting a upside of 46.84% from the current price of $55.64. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) Summary page.
CBRL Key Business Developments
Release Date: March 06, 2025
- Total Revenue: $949.4 million, up 1.5% from the prior year quarter.
- Comparable Store Restaurant Sales Growth: 4.7%.
- Comparable Store Retail Sales Growth: 0.2%.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $74.6 million, or 7.9% of total revenue.
- Restaurant Revenue: $750.5 million, increased by 2.7%.
- Retail Revenue: $199 million, decreased by 2.8%.
- Pricing: Approximately 6% for the quarter.
- Cost of Goods Sold: 32.6% of total revenue, improved from 33.7% in the prior year quarter.
- Labor and Related Expenses: 34.4% of revenue, improved by 70 basis points excluding prior year favorability.
- Net Interest Expense: $5 million.
- Adjusted Earnings Per Diluted Share: $1.38, increased by 9.5%.
- Capital Expenditures: $38.1 million in the second quarter.
- Total Debt: $471.5 million at quarter end.
- Quarterly Dividend: $0.25 per share.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) reported a strong second quarter with total revenue of $949.4 million, including a 4.7% growth in comparable store restaurant sales.
- The company exceeded expectations with an adjusted EBITDA of $74.6 million, leading to an increase in fiscal 2025 EBITDA guidance.
- Positive comparable store restaurant sales were achieved for the third consecutive quarter, and retail sales turned positive for the first time since fiscal 2023.
- Operational improvements and strategic actions in catering and Heat n' Serve channels significantly boosted profitability.
- The company is making progress on its transformation strategy, focusing on brand refinement, menu enhancement, and digital and off-premise growth.
Negative Points
- Retail revenue decreased by 2.8% to $199 million, indicating challenges in the retail segment.
- The company experienced a negative impact on total sales due to a timing shift related to gift card breakage and a calendar shift.
- There was a 2.7% decline in traffic, partly due to strategic decisions to prioritize more profitable channels over lower-profitability ones.
- Egg costs are expected to increase by $4 million due to avian influenza affecting supply, impacting cost management.
- The company anticipates minimal labor savings in Q3 from its back-of-house optimization initiative, with benefits expected to ramp up in Q4.
