Nvidia (NVDA) Faces Big Test With $43.28B Q1 Forecast Amid China Curbs

Q1 revenue expected to rise 66.2% to $43.28 billion

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May 28, 2025
Summary
  • Options traders brace for volatility in chip stocks
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Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) is expected to report $43.28 billion in Q1 revenue, a 66.2% jump from last year. While the growth is strong, investors are watching how U.S. chip restrictions on China may hit future sales.

The chipmaker has topped revenue estimates for nine straight quarters, but this report comes with added tension. Export rules, especially those limiting AI chip sales to China, could start to bite, even as other regulatory shifts open new markets.

Ahead of the earnings release, traders are loading up on hedges in semiconductor ETFs, expecting bigger swings. The report is being treated as a key moment for tech sentiment, especially in AI.

Global bond markets are also under pressure. Japan's 40-year bond auction drew weak demand, while long-end yields are spiking across major economies on concerns over deficits and inflation.

Japan may cut its supply of super-long bonds, which briefly pushed down yields and the yen. U.S. Treasury yields ticked up on Wednesday, continuing a choppy trend.

New Zealand's central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and hinted at deeper easing, pointing to risks from U.S. trade shifts.

Also on deck: earnings from Bank of Montreal (BMO, Financials), DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS, Financials), and Macy's (M, Financials). U.S. and European bond auctions, plus French inflation data, round out a heavy news day.

Investors will be watching how Nvidia navigates geopolitical risks while keeping up its AI-driven momentum.

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I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours. Click for the complete disclosure