Mizuho has revised its price target for BellRing Brands (BRBR, Financial), reducing it from $85 to $75, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. This adjustment is part of a broader reevaluation of targets within the food producer sector. The firm's analysis emphasizes the benefits of enhanced distribution, category growth, and limited exposure to private labels as key reasons for their positive outlook on BRBR. The updated targets reflect a general industry valuation de-rating, affecting multiple companies in the sector.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 16 analysts, the average target price for BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR, Financial) is $79.62 with a high estimate of $90.00 and a low estimate of $65.00. The average target implies an upside of 30.51% from the current price of $61.01. More detailed estimate data can be found on the BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 18 brokerage firms, BellRing Brands Inc's (BRBR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR, Financial) in one year is $70.07, suggesting a upside of 14.85% from the current price of $61.01. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR) Summary page.
BRBR Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Net Sales: $588 million, a 19% increase over the prior year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $119 million, a 14% increase.
- Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 20.2%.
- Premier Protein Net Sales Growth: 22% driven by RTD shakes and powders.
- Dymatize Net Sales Growth: 3% with 20% higher volume.
- Adjusted Gross Profit: $203 million, a 22% increase.
- Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: 34.5%, up 80 basis points.
- SG&A Expenses: $91 million, an increase of 140 basis points as a percentage of net sales.
- Advertising and Promotion Spend: 4.7% of net sales, up from 3.1% last year.
- Cash Flow from Operations: $48 million in Q2, $51 million in the first half.
- Net Debt: $932 million with net leverage at 1.9 times.
- Share Repurchases: 2.4 million shares at an average price of $71.68 per share, totaling $172 million.
- Fiscal '25 Guidance: Net sales of $2.26 billion to $2.34 billion; Adjusted EBITDA of $470 million to $500 million.
- Expected Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 21.1% at the midpoint of guidance.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR, Financial) reported a 19% increase in net sales, driven by strong demand for Premier Protein products.
- Premier Protein shakes saw a 25% increase in consumption, reaching new highs in household penetration and market share.
- The company affirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook, projecting net sales growth of 13% to 17% and EBITDA growth of 7% to 14%.
- Dymatize brand posted positive domestic consumption growth and improved its market share in the powders category.
- The company has a strong innovation pipeline, including new product lines like the indulgence line, which is attracting new consumers and expanding market reach.
Negative Points
- Retailer inventory reductions are expected to be a mid-single-digit headwind to third-quarter growth.
- Input cost inflation is anticipated to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025, pressuring margins.
- Higher advertising and promotion expenses increased SG&A costs, impacting overall profitability.
- Potential future tariffs on dairy protein sourced from New Zealand and the EU could impact input costs starting in fiscal 2026.
- The company is cautious about consumer uncertainty and has not tightened its guidance range despite strong performance.
