Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI, Financial) fell by 34 cents, landing around $4.14. Options trading volume significantly surpassed the norm with 67,000 contracts exchanged, and calls were more prevalent than puts, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.22, which is slightly below its typical level of 0.23.
Additionally, the implied volatility, denoted as IV30, decreased by 8.29 to approximately 151.36, placing it among the higher levels observed over the past year. This indicates an anticipated daily price movement of about $0.40. The flattening of the put-call skew points to a somewhat optimistic sentiment among investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 4 analysts, the average target price for BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI, Financial) is $4.00 with a high estimate of $6.00 and a low estimate of $1.50. The average target implies an downside of 3.03% from the current price of $4.13. More detailed estimate data can be found on the BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 4 brokerage firms, BigBear.ai Holdings Inc's (BBAI, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI, Financial) in one year is $1.24, suggesting a downside of 69.94% from the current price of $4.125. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) Summary page.
BBAI Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 01, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI, Financial) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by additional revenue from the Department of Homeland Security and digital identity awards.
- The company secured a significant new contract with the Department of Defense, validating its AI capabilities and alignment with mission-critical needs.
- BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) has a strong financial position with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing financial flexibility for strategic investments.
- The company's backlog increased by 30% to $385 million, indicating continued customer confidence in its solutions.
- BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (BBAI) is strategically expanding into international markets and new domestic adjacencies, leveraging its core competencies and technologies.
Negative Points
- The company reported a net loss of $62 million for Q1 2025, although this was an improvement from the previous year's net loss of $127.8 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA was negative $7 million for Q1 2025, primarily due to increased R&D expenses and government funding delays.
- Gross margin showed only a slight improvement, with adjusted gross margin decreasing from 29.1% in Q1 2024 to 28.6% in Q1 2025.
- There are potential short-term risks due to changes in federal procurement processes and government efficiency efforts, causing temporary variability and delays in funding.
- The company faces challenges in maintaining consistent revenue growth due to the lumpiness and fluctuation in contract awards and milestone achievements.
