Apple (AAPL, Financial) slips after IDC trimmed its 2025 smartphone shipment forecast to just 0.6% growth, down from 2.3%, amid tariff and economic worries.
IDC's Nabila Popal warns that “whirlwind of uncertainty” since the April tariff announcement clouds strategic planning, as exemptions may give way to broader levies on phones made outside the U.S.
The firm now expects global volumes to hit 1.24 billion units, with the U.S. and China driving that modest rise—but China's 3% gain relies heavily on capped government subsidies that tilt the playing field toward Android rivals.
Apple's iPhone shipments are pegged to fall 1.9% year-over-year, squeezed by increased competition from Huawei and peers, a slowing economy and subsidy limits, though the 618 shopping festival and iPhone 17 launch could provide upside. IDC cautions that tariff risks in India, Vietnam and China could further dent U.S. demand if new duties materialize.
Investors should care because softer volume growth and geopolitical headwinds may pressure Apple's premium pricing power and Services revenue tied to active iPhone users. In Apple's next earnings call, markets will watch for any commentary on tariff impacts, supply-chain shifts or demand surprises ahead of the holiday quarter.
