According to IDC's recent forecast, global smartphone shipment growth for 2025 has been drastically revised downwards from 2.6% to just 0.6%. Economic uncertainties fueled by tariff policies and decreased consumer spending are the primary causes of this revision. This adjustment poses challenges for major smartphone manufacturers like Apple (AAPL, Financial), already facing sales slowdowns due to geopolitical tensions and tariff disputes.
The anticipated annual growth rate for smartphone shipments is expected to be in the low single digits this year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.4% from 2024 to 2029. Key factors include increased market saturation, extended upgrade cycles, and the impact of the secondary market.
Despite rising geopolitical risks, the US and China markets will slightly boost global smartphone growth. China's market is projected to grow 3% in 2025, aided by government subsidies for Android devices. Apple, however, is expected to see a 1.9% decline in shipments, facing competition from rivals like Huawei and weak consumer demand. Some iPhone models do not qualify for subsidies.
Apple aims to offset these challenges with its upcoming "618 Shopping Festival" promotions and the hardware upgrades of the iPhone 17. Additionally, Apple is expanding its manufacturing presence in India and Vietnam to reduce reliance on China, amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.
