Cantor Fitzgerald has revised its price target for Elastic (ESTC, Financial), lowering it from $109 to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The decision follows Elastic's recent quarterly report, which presented mixed results. The company's revenue exceeded expectations largely due to strong performance in its self-managed segment, though its cloud revenue fell short of forecasts. Analysts highlight that the initial outlook for fiscal 2026 reflects a cautious approach. Cantor is seeking greater clarity on Elastic's revenue trajectory in the upcoming quarters.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 24 analysts, the average target price for Elastic NV (ESTC, Financial) is $115.85 with a high estimate of $160.00 and a low estimate of $75.00. The average target implies an upside of 25.89% from the current price of $92.03. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Elastic NV (ESTC) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 28 brokerage firms, Elastic NV's (ESTC, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Elastic NV (ESTC, Financial) in one year is $119.88, suggesting a upside of 30.26% from the current price of $92.03. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Elastic NV (ESTC) Summary page.
ESTC Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 29, 2025
- Total Revenue: $388 million, 16% growth year-over-year.
- Subscription Revenue: $362 million, 16% growth as reported, 17% in constant currency.
- Elastic Cloud Revenue: 23% growth as reported and in constant currency.
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 15% for Q4 and fiscal year 2025.
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin: 19% for fiscal year 2025.
- CRPO (Current Remaining Performance Obligations): Approximately $1 billion, 18% growth year-over-year.
- Customers with >$1 Million ACV: Grew approximately 27%, with 45 net new customers added.
- Customers with >$100,000 ACV: Grew approximately 14%, with 180 net new customers added.
- Q1 Fiscal 2026 Revenue Guidance: $396 million to $398 million, 14% year-over-year growth at midpoint.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: $1.655 billion to $1.67 billion, 12% year-over-year growth at midpoint.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin Guidance: Approximately 16%.
- Q1 Fiscal 2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: $0.41 to $0.43.
- Fiscal Year 2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: $2.24 to $2.32.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Elastic NV (ESTC, Financial) achieved a strong quarter with a 16% revenue growth and a 23% increase in Elastic Cloud revenue.
- The company exceeded guidance across all revenue and profitability metrics, demonstrating platform strength.
- Elastic NV (ESTC) ended FY25 with more than 1,510 customers spending over $100,000, and over 210 customers with more than $1 million in committed annual contract value.
- The company secured significant deals, including an eight-figure expansion with a global financial institution and a multiyear seven-figure deal with an international banking group.
- Elastic NV (ESTC) continues to see strong adoption of its GenAI applications, with over 2,000 Elastic Cloud customers using it for GenAI use cases.
Negative Points
- Elastic NV (ESTC) faced pressure in the US public sector, impacting sales cycles, particularly in federal civilian agencies.
- The company is approaching FY26 guidance with prudence due to potential macroeconomic uncertainties.
- There is a noted sequential headwind due to fewer days in Q4, affecting revenue comparisons.
- Despite strong performance, the company acknowledges potential uncertainty amidst evolving macro conditions.
- Elastic NV (ESTC) is seeing slower sequential cloud growth in fiscal Q1, attributed to seasonal patterns and consumption headwinds.
