Truist has commenced coverage on Flywire (FLYW, Financial), giving the stock a Buy rating along with a price target of $12. Despite challenges from geopolitical pressures affecting its cross-border education division, the firm believes that market expectations have already accounted for these risks. Since the start of 2024, Flywire's projected net revenue for 2026 has been reduced by 20%, and the stock value has plummeted by over 50%. However, Truist sees this as a favorable opportunity to invest in Flywire, citing the company's high-quality offerings and its potential for growth. The firm anticipates that increased merchant activity and cross-selling opportunities will support a robust annual revenue growth rate in the high teens over the next few years.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for Flywire Corp (FLYW, Financial) is $15.04 with a high estimate of $21.98 and a low estimate of $11.50. The average target implies an upside of 39.94% from the current price of $10.75. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Flywire Corp (FLYW) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 15 brokerage firms, Flywire Corp's (FLYW, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.5, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Flywire Corp (FLYW, Financial) in one year is $37.54, suggesting a upside of 249.21% from the current price of $10.75. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Flywire Corp (FLYW) Summary page.
FLYW Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Revenue: $128.7 million in Q1, 16.8% year-over-year growth, 18.6% on an FX-neutral basis.
- Revenue Excluding Sertifi: $124 million in Q1, 12.6% year-over-year growth, 14.4% on an FX-neutral basis.
- Sertifi Contribution: $4.7 million since acquisition in late February.
- Transaction Revenue: 14% year-over-year increase, driven by a 28% increase in transaction-related payment volume.
- Platform and Other Revenues: Increased 35% year-over-year.
- Adjusted Gross Profit: $82.5 million, up 14.6% year-over-year.
- Adjusted Gross Margin: 64% in Q1 2025, a decrease of about 110 basis points compared to Q1 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $21.6 million for the quarter, up 56% compared to Q1 2024.
- GAAP Net Loss: $4.2 million, a year-over-year improvement of approximately $2 million.
- Stock Repurchase: $3.6 million Flywire shares repurchased for approximately $49 million.
- Full Year Revenue Guidance: 17% to 23% FX-neutral revenue growth including Sertifi.
- Q2 Revenue Guidance: FX-neutral revenue growth of 17% to 23% year-over-year, including Sertifi.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Flywire Corp (FLYW, Financial) signed 200 new clients in the first quarter, indicating strong demand for its solutions.
- The company has a resilient business model that adapts well to challenging macroeconomic conditions.
- Flywire Corp (FLYW) maintains a low churn rate, reflecting strong client partnerships and satisfaction.
- The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in non-traditional markets like Germany, France, Japan, and Singapore.
- Flywire Corp (FLYW) is seeing strong momentum in its travel vertical, with significant new client acquisitions and revenue growth.
Negative Points
- Flywire Corp (FLYW) faces macroeconomic headwinds, particularly in the Canadian higher education market, impacting growth.
- The company anticipates potential challenges in the US education sector due to visa and geopolitical issues.
- There is a cautious growth assumption for the US education business, with expected low single-digit revenue growth.
- Flywire Corp (FLYW) is experiencing pressure on its net revenue retention (NRR) due to market headwinds in Canada and Australia.
- The company is undergoing an operational and portfolio review, which may involve restructuring and cost optimization efforts.
