Truist has begun coverage of Lightspeed (LSPD, Financial) by assigning it a Hold rating and setting a price target of $11. Despite the recent underperformance of the stock, the firm expresses a degree of caution, labeling Lightspeed as a "show me" story. This indicates that they are waiting for the company to demonstrate tangible improvements. The analyst highlights potential risks, including the possibility of negative revisions if customer turnover increases or if the company's loan growth decelerates.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average target price for Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD, Financial) is $13.12 with a high estimate of $20.53 and a low estimate of $9.00. The average target implies an upside of 25.17% from the current price of $10.48. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 13 brokerage firms, Lightspeed Commerce Inc's (LSPD, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.8, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD, Financial) in one year is $24.72, suggesting a upside of 135.88% from the current price of $10.48. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD) Summary page.
LSPD Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 22, 2025
- Total Annual Revenue: $1.077 billion, up 18% year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $53.7 million, up from $1.3 million in the previous year.
- Gross Margin: 44% in Q4, annual gross margin held steady at 42%.
- Software ARPU: Grew 11% year over year.
- Transaction-Based Revenue: $157.8 million, up 14% year over year.
- Gross Payments Volume (GPV): Increased by 40% year over year.
- Cash Position: $558 million at year-end.
- Share Repurchase Program: 18.7 million shares repurchased for $219 million.
- Customer Locations Growth: Over 3% in growth markets.
- Goodwill Impairment Charge: $556 million in Q4.
- Fiscal 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook: 10% to 12% year over year.
- Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: $68 million to $72 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD, Financial) exceeded $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, marking a significant milestone.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose substantially from $1.3 million to $53.7 million, indicating improved profitability.
- The company launched industry-leading innovations such as retail insights and a kitchen display system, enhancing product offerings.
- A successful share repurchase program returned over $130 million of capital to investors, demonstrating strong capital management.
- Software ARPU grew 11% year over year, reflecting strong adoption of new modules and effective price optimization.
Negative Points
- Macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, posing potential risks to future performance.
- A goodwill impairment charge of $556 million was recorded, impacting financial statements.
- Same-store sales softness was observed, particularly in North American hospitality, affecting revenue.
- The company experienced a decline in cash position due to significant share buybacks and merchant cash advances.
- Transaction-based revenue growth was impacted by macro headwinds, leading to slower growth in certain verticals.
