Citi has raised its rating for DHL Group (DHLGY, Financial) from Neutral to Buy, setting a new price target of EUR 48, an increase from the previous EUR 40. This decision is based on an in-depth evaluation of DHL's vital Express division. According to Citi, the Express network is currently operating below capacity due to a decline in daily TDI volumes since 2021. However, the firm believes that as these volumes pick up, the market is not fully appreciating the potential for enhanced EBIT margins. This recovery in shipping volumes could present significant growth opportunities for DHL Group.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 1 analysts, the average target price for Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY, Financial) is $49.00 with a high estimate of $49.00 and a low estimate of $49.00. The average target implies an upside of 8.74% from the current price of $45.06. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 1 brokerage firms, Deutsche Post AG's (DHLGY, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 3.0, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY, Financial) in one year is $47.41, suggesting a upside of 5.22% from the current price of $45.06. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY) Summary page.
DHLGY Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 30, 2025
- Earnings Growth: Approximately 5% growth in earnings.
- Revenue Growth: Slight growth in revenue.
- Free Cash Flow: Delivered a good free cash flow.
- EBIT Improvements: Notable improvements in Express supply chain and P&P Germany.
- DHL Supply Chain EBIT: Solid EBIT growth.
- DHL eCommerce Revenue Growth: 6% organic top line growth.
- P&P Germany EBIT Guidance: Expected to reach a minimum of EUR1 billion for the full year.
- Express Division EBIT: Year-over-year increase in EBIT despite volume decline.
- Aviation Net Supply Cost: Declined by 7%.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY, Financial) reported a 5% growth in earnings for Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year.
- The company saw EBIT improvements in its Express and Supply Chain divisions, showcasing operational efficiency.
- Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY) continues to execute its growth strategy with acquisitions in the life science and healthcare sectors.
- The company has managed its capacity well, particularly in the Express division, contributing positively to results.
- Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY) maintains a strong market position in Southeast Asia, which is beneficial amid shifting global trade dynamics.
Negative Points
- The macro environment remains volatile, with changes in US trade policies impacting operations.
- There is a 'wait and see' approach among customers, delaying investment decisions and affecting consumer confidence.
- The company faces challenges in its road freight business in Europe, with additional costs from system transitions.
- Deutsche Post AG (DHLGY) has reduced its exposure to the China-US trade lane, but this has led to a decline in B2C shipments.
- The ongoing trade policy changes create operational challenges, particularly with customs and tariff adjustments.
