Counterpoint Research has revised its 2025 shipment growth forecasts for major smartphone manufacturers Apple (AAPL, Financial) and Samsung due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. The global smartphone shipment growth rate for this year is now projected at 1.9%, down from 4.2%, mainly because of these uncertainties affecting the supply chain and market demand.
In April, U.S. President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from various countries. While smartphones and other electronics were exempted shortly after, the market remains cautious about future policy directions. Under these conditions, Apple's 2025 shipment growth rate is adjusted from 4% to 2.5%, while Samsung's is expected to remain flat, down from 1.7%.
Apple's shipment forecast reflects challenges such as the iPhone 16 series and a trend of consumers in emerging markets opting for higher-priced models. The company produces about 90% of its iPhones in China, drawing attention to potential tariff impacts. To mitigate this, Apple is increasing shipments from India.
Meanwhile, Huawei stands out positively, with an expected shipment growth rate of 11% in 2025, leveraging its semiconductor technology advancements to capture more market share in China's mid-to-low-end segment.
