XPO has disclosed preliminary figures for its Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment for the month of May. The company observed a 5.7% drop in LTL tonnage per day compared to the same month last year. This decline is primarily due to a 5% reduction in shipments per day and a slight 0.7% decrease in weight per shipment. It is important to note that these figures are preliminary and could change once the final results for May 2025 are available.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 24 analysts, the average target price for XPO Inc (XPO, Financial) is $126.17 with a high estimate of $152.00 and a low estimate of $85.00. The average target implies an upside of 9.78% from the current price of $114.93. More detailed estimate data can be found on the XPO Inc (XPO) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 26 brokerage firms, XPO Inc's (XPO, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for XPO Inc (XPO, Financial) in one year is $87.15, suggesting a downside of 24.17% from the current price of $114.93. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the XPO Inc (XPO) Summary page.
XPO Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 30, 2025
- Revenue: $2 billion for the first quarter, down 3% year over year, up 2% sequentially.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $278 million, down 3% year over year.
- Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.73, exceeding expectations.
- LTL Segment Revenue: Down 4% year over year, up 1% sequentially; excluding fuel, down 2% year over year.
- LTL Adjusted EBITDA: $250 million, down 2% year over year.
- Yield Growth (Excluding Fuel): 6.9% year over year.
- Purchased Transportation Expense: Decreased by 53% year over year, equating to a $41 million reduction.
- Net Income: $69 million, up 3% year over year.
- Cash Flow from Operating Activities: $142 million for the quarter.
- Net CapEx: $191 million deployed in the quarter.
- Liquidity: $811 million, with $212 million in cash on hand.
- Net Debt Leverage Ratio: 2.5 times trailing 12 months of adjusted EBITDA.
- European Transportation Adjusted EBITDA: $32 million for the quarter.
- Adjusted Operating Ratio: Improved by 30 basis points to 85.9% sequentially.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- XPO Inc (XPO, Financial) reported first-quarter revenue of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.73, exceeding expectations.
- The LTL segment showed strong performance with a sequential margin improvement better than normal seasonality, and a cumulative 370 basis points improvement in adjusted operating ratio over two years.
- XPO Inc (XPO) achieved a record low damage claims ratio of 0.3%, reflecting improvements in service quality and operational efficiency.
- The company has successfully reduced purchase transportation costs by 53% year over year, demonstrating effective cost management.
- XPO Inc (XPO) is leveraging AI technology for linehaul optimization and labor planning, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.
Negative Points
- Total company revenue was down 3% year over year, and LTL segment revenue was down 4% year over year, primarily due to lower fuel surcharge revenue.
- Despite strong yield growth, adjusted EBITDA for the LTL segment decreased by 2% year over year, impacted by lower tonnage and pension income.
- The company faces a challenging freight market with a fluid macro environment, making it difficult to predict future demand and tonnage trends.
- XPO Inc (XPO) anticipates potential mid-single-digit declines in full-year tonnage if the macro environment worsens, which could impact margin improvement goals.
- The company is navigating uncertainties related to tariffs and their potential impact on domestic trade and demand.
