Loop Capital has revised its price target for Cracker Barrel (CBRL, Financial) shares, increasing it from $50 to $55. Despite this increase, the firm maintains a Hold rating for the stock. The adjustment comes after Cracker Barrel's third-quarter earnings significantly exceeded expectations, offsetting a modest 1% rise in comparable sales, which was below the anticipated 2% growth. This analysis suggests a cautious but optimistic view of the company's future performance.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 7 analysts, the average target price for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) is $51.14 with a high estimate of $63.00 and a low estimate of $39.00. The average target implies an downside of 4.66% from the current price of $53.64. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc's (CBRL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 3.2, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) in one year is $81.90, suggesting a upside of 52.68% from the current price of $53.64. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) Summary page.
CBRL Key Business Developments
Release Date: June 05, 2025
- Total Revenue: $821.1 million, up 0.5% from the prior year quarter.
- Restaurant Revenue: Increased 1.2% to $679.3 million.
- Retail Revenue: Decreased 2.7% to $141.8 million.
- Comparable Store Restaurant Sales: Grew by 1%.
- Comparable Store Retail Sales: Decreased by 3.8%.
- Pricing: Approximately 4.9% for the quarter.
- Cost of Goods Sold: 30.1% of total revenue, up from 30% in the prior year.
- Restaurant Cost of Goods Sold: 26.2% of restaurant sales, up from 25.9% in the prior year.
- Retail Cost of Goods Sold: 48.9% of retail sales, down from 49% in the prior year.
- Labor and Related Expenses: 37.1% of revenue, down from 37.8% in the prior year.
- Other Operating Expenses: 25.3% of revenue, up from 24.5% in the prior year.
- General and Administrative Expenses: 5.6% of revenue, up from 5.4% in the prior year.
- Adjusted Earnings Per Diluted Share: $0.58.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $48.1 million, or 5.9% of total revenue.
- Capital Expenditures: $36.6 million in the third quarter.
- Total Debt: $489.4 million at quarter end.
- Quarterly Dividend: $0.25 per share, payable on August 13, 2025.
- Fiscal 2025 Revenue Guidance: $3.45 billion to $3.5 billion.
- Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $215 million to $225 million.
- Fiscal 2025 Capital Expenditures Guidance: $160 million to $170 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL, Financial) reported positive comparable store restaurant sales for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, indicating effective execution of the transformation plan.
- The company successfully launched new culinary promotions, such as the Campfire meals and shrimp dishes, which have been well-received.
- Cracker Barrel Rewards program achieved its fiscal '25 target of acquiring 8 million members, driving incremental sales and traffic.
- The company is leveraging AI technology to improve efficiency, including traffic forecasting and guest relations, which has shown positive results.
Negative Points
- Retail revenue decreased by 2.7%, and comparable store retail sales fell by 3.8%, indicating challenges in the retail segment.
- The company faces a $5 million EBITDA impact from tariffs, with ongoing uncertainty about future tariff effects.
- Labor and related expenses remain high, although there was a slight improvement in productivity.
- The macroeconomic environment and weather conditions negatively impacted traffic, particularly in February.
- The company is still in the early stages of its transformation plan, with significant investments required, impacting short-term profitability.
