Grab (GRAB, Financial) is quietly pushing forward on what could be one of Southeast Asia's biggest tech shakeups—a $7 billion move to acquire rival GoTo. After years of circling each other, the two ride-hailing and food delivery giants are now refining a two-step deal: GoTo could first absorb Grab's Indonesia unit, then Grab would swoop in for control of the merged business. But it's not just about market strategy. The deal faces serious political and regulatory headwinds, especially in Indonesia, where a merger would concentrate 60–70% of the on-demand market in one player's hands.
Enter Danantara—Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund—which has kicked off early-stage talks to buy a minority stake in the new entity. That move could help ease nationalist fears over foreign dominance, job losses, and rising consumer costs. For President Prabowo's government, which has been flexing its populist muscles with wage hikes, subsidy boosts, and demands for driver bonuses, having a local backer in the mix might be a political win. For Grab, it's a potential green light. But the clock is ticking. Any deal still hinges on clearance from Indonesia's antitrust watchdog, and regulatory nerves remain high.
Meanwhile, the market dynamics are shifting fast. Grab's revenue in Indonesia rose just 6.3% in 2024—its slowest in Southeast Asia—while GoTo has already exited Vietnam and Thailand. A tie-up would give Grab more firepower in Indonesia's 275-million-strong market, just as newer players like InDrive and Maxim try to muscle in. The stakes? If Danantara comes onboard, the merger could reshape Southeast Asia's tech landscape. If not, Grab might have to find another way into the driver's seat.
