H.C. Wainwright has initiated coverage on Ardelyx, ticker ARDX, assigning it a Buy rating and setting a price target of $10. The endorsement follows Ardelyx's successful approval and commercialization of Ibsrela, used for managing irritable bowel syndrome with constipation in adults, and Xphozah, which addresses hyperphosphatemia. The firm anticipates further commercial advances for Ardelyx in the near future.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average target price for Ardelyx Inc (ARDX, Financial) is $10.32 with a high estimate of $15.00 and a low estimate of $5.50. The average target implies an upside of 190.65% from the current price of $3.55. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 12 brokerage firms, Ardelyx Inc's (ARDX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Ardelyx Inc (ARDX, Financial) in one year is $19.55, suggesting a upside of 450.7% from the current price of $3.55. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) Summary page.
ARDX Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 01, 2025
- Total Revenue: $74.1 million, a 61% increase from the previous year.
- IBSRELA Net Sales Revenue: $44.4 million, a 57% increase year-over-year.
- XPHOZAH Net Sales Revenue: $23.4 million, a 55% increase year-over-year, excluding a one-time $3.8 million returns reserve release, the growth was 30%.
- Gross Net Deduction for IBSRELA: 34.8% for the quarter.
- Gross Net Deduction for XPHOZAH: Approximately 18%, excluding the returns reserve release, it was approximately 32%.
- Research and Development Expenses: $14.9 million, up from $10.6 million the previous year.
- Selling, General and Administrative Expenses: $83.2 million, compared to $53 million the previous year.
- Net Loss: Approximately $41.1 million or $0.17 per share, compared to a net loss of $26.5 million or $0.11 per share the previous year.
- Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-term Investments: $214 million as of March 31, 2025.
- Milestone Payment: $5 million from Fosun Pharma for the approval of tenapanor in China.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Ardelyx Inc (ARDX, Financial) reported a significant revenue growth of 61% year-over-year, reaching $74 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- IBSRELA showed a 57% increase in net sales revenue compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand and market penetration.
- XPHOZAH achieved a 30% revenue growth year-over-year, excluding one-time adjustments, demonstrating its importance in managing phosphorus levels for patients.
- The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance of $240 million to $250 million in net sales for IBSRELA, with a clear path to achieving over $1 billion in peak annual net sales.
- Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) maintained a strong cash position with $214 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of March 31, 2025, supporting its ongoing operations and strategic initiatives.
Negative Points
- The loss of Medicare Part D coverage for phosphate-lowering therapies has caused significant disruption in the dialysis market, affecting XPHOZAH's market dynamics.
- The company experienced a net loss of approximately $41.1 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $26.5 million in the same period last year.
- Research and development expenses increased to $14.9 million, reflecting higher engagement with scientific and medical communities.
- Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $83.2 million, up from $53 million in the prior year, due to expanded commercial activities and corporate infrastructure growth.
- Ardelyx Inc (ARDX) has not yet provided formal revenue guidance for XPHOZAH due to the fluid market environment and ongoing access complexities.
