Barclays has increased its price target for Couchbase (BASE, Financial) shares from $22 to $24.50, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The adjustment follows the potential acquisition of Couchbase by Haveli Investments, which Barclays perceives as a positive advancement for the company. As per the terms of the acquisition, shareholders are set to receive $24.50 per share, signifying a 29% premium over the stock's closing price last Wednesday.
Barclays highlights the inclusion of a "go-shop" period in the agreement, allowing Couchbase to explore and engage in a potentially superior offer until Monday, June 23. Despite this opportunity, Barclays considers the emergence of a higher bid during this timeframe unlikely, citing the challenges financial sponsors might face in presenting competing offers within the limited period.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 16 analysts, the average target price for Couchbase Inc (BASE, Financial) is $21.56 with a high estimate of $26.00 and a low estimate of $16.00. The average target implies an downside of 12.95% from the current price of $24.77. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Couchbase Inc (BASE) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 17 brokerage firms, Couchbase Inc's (BASE, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Couchbase Inc (BASE, Financial) in one year is $20.19, suggesting a downside of 18.49% from the current price of $24.77. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Couchbase Inc (BASE) Summary page.
BASE Key Business Developments
Release Date: June 03, 2025
- Total ARR: $252.1 million, up 21% year-over-year, 6% sequentially.
- Net New ARR: $14.2 million, up more than 300% year-over-year.
- Revenue: $56.5 million, up 10% year-over-year, 3% sequentially.
- Non-GAAP Operating Loss: $4.2 million.
- Capella ARR: $44 million, up 84% year-over-year.
- Gross Margin: 88.7%.
- Operating Cash Flow: Negative $6.8 million.
- Free Cash Flow: Negative $8.6 million.
- Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-term Investments: $141.8 million.
- RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations): $239.6 million, up 9% year-over-year.
- Q1 ARR per Customer: $269,000.
- Dollar-based Net Retention Rate (NRR): Greater than 114%.
- Customer Count: 937, a decrease of 10 net new customers from last quarter.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Couchbase Inc (BASE, Financial) reported a strong start to fiscal 2026, exceeding guidance ranges for ARR, revenue, and non-GAAP operating loss.
- The company saw substantial acceleration in net new ARR growth, driven by large strategic accounts and Capella adoption.
- Capella ARR increased by over 80% year-over-year, now representing 17.4% of total ARR and 33% of the customer base.
- Couchbase Inc (BASE) continues to innovate with new product features, including the launch of Couchbase Edge Server and enhancements in AI capabilities.
- The company has a growing pipeline of strategic opportunities, reinforcing confidence in maintaining momentum throughout the fiscal year.
Negative Points
- Despite strong ARR performance, total revenue growth was slower than expected, partly due to migration dynamics affecting revenue recognition.
- There was a decline in customer count, driven by churn in customers with starter packs, although this was offset by healthy gross retention.
- Professional service revenue decreased by 27% year-over-year and 22% sequentially.
- Operating cash flow for the first quarter was negative $6.8 million, with a free cash flow margin of negative 15.3%.
- The company faces ongoing challenges with longer sales cycles and higher deal scrutiny due to macroeconomic pressures.
