CIBC analyst Jamie Kubik has increased the price target for Tourmaline Oil (TRMLF, Financial), moving it from C$72.50 to C$77.50. The analyst continues to maintain an Outperform rating on the stock, reflecting a strong confidence in its future performance. This adjustment suggests a positive outlook for Tourmaline Oil, with the stock poised for potential growth.
TRMLF Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Average Production: 638,000 BOEs per day, up 8% year-over-year.
- Cash Flow: $963 million for Q1 2025.
- Capital Expenditure (CapEx): $825 million total, with $800 million on EP spending.
- Free Cash Flow: $150 million generated in Q1 2025.
- Special Dividend: $0.35 per share payable on May 26, 2025.
- Quarterly Dividend: $0.50 per share payable on June 30, 2025.
- Net Earnings: $213 million or $0.56 per fully diluted share for Q1 2025.
- Q2 2025 Production Forecast: 615,000 to 625,000 BOEs per day.
- Full Year 2025 CapEx Program: $2.6 billion to $2.85 billion.
- Natural Gas Price: Average realized price of CAD4.30 per mcf in Q1 2025.
- Hedging Program: 1.16 BCF per day hedged at CAD4.95 per mcf for 2025.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Tourmaline Oil Corp (TRMLF, Financial) reported an 8% increase in average production for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, reaching 638,000 BOEs per day.
- The company generated $963 million in cash flow for Q1 2025, with a net free cash flow of $150 million.
- Tourmaline Oil Corp (TRMLF) declared a special dividend of $0.35 per share and plans a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.
- The company is strategically consolidating the Northeast BC Montney, a profitable gas play, and expanding its infrastructure ahead of expected improvements in natural gas markets.
- Tourmaline Oil Corp (TRMLF) has entered into agreements for two acquisitions in the North Montney and South Montney, adding significant production and reserves potential.
Negative Points
- Q2 2025 production is expected to decrease to between 615,000 and 625,000 BOEs per day due to maintenance and weaker prices.
- First quarter earnings were $213 million, or $0.56 per fully diluted share, which may not meet some investor expectations.
- The company plans to defer some Q2 frac activity to Q3 due to weak gas prices, potentially impacting short-term production growth.
- Tourmaline Oil Corp (TRMLF) faces backwardation in the strip pricing, affecting long-term free cash flow projections.
- The company issued stock for recent acquisitions, which may dilute existing shareholders, instead of using cash despite a strong balance sheet.
