Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli has commenced coverage on Redwire (RDW, Financial), assigning a Hold rating and setting a price target of $16. Redwire, once a pure space-focused company, has transitioned into a defense-tech disruptor, a shift marked by its recent acquisition of Edge Autonomy. This evolution positions Redwire to effectively meet the demands of defense, commercial, and civil space clients. Despite this promising strategic position, the company's financial results have been inconsistent. The analyst expresses the need for more stable financial performance before fully embracing Redwire's potential. This cautious stance reflects a desire for clearer signals of financial stability before increasing confidence in the company's trajectory.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 6 analysts, the average target price for Redwire Corp (RDW, Financial) is $24.00 with a high estimate of $28.00 and a low estimate of $19.00. The average target implies an upside of 49.81% from the current price of $16.02. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Redwire Corp (RDW) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 6 brokerage firms, Redwire Corp's (RDW, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Redwire Corp (RDW, Financial) in one year is $8.84, suggesting a downside of 44.82% from the current price of $16.02. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Redwire Corp (RDW) Summary page.
RDW Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 12, 2025
- Revenue: $61.4 million, a decrease both sequentially and year-over-year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Improved to negative $2.3 million from negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024.
- Net Loss: Improved to $2.9 million, a sequential improvement of more than $60 million.
- Total Liquidity: $89.2 million, a 39.2% improvement over the previous year-end.
- Contract Awards: $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times.
- Backlog: $291.2 million as of March 31, 2025.
- 2025 Revenue Forecast: $535 million to $605 million.
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Forecast: $70 million to $105 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Redwire Corp (RDW, Financial) was awarded a contract from Thales Alenia Space to provide docking systems for the European Space Agency's I-Hab habitation module, showcasing their strong foundation in space infrastructure.
- The company announced a partnership with ispace US to pursue commercial lunar exploration and science missions, enhancing their capabilities in lunar exploration.
- Redwire Corp (RDW) launched new drug development technology and a cancer detection experiment to the International Space Station, expanding their in-space pharmaceutical development.
- The acquisition of Edge Autonomy is expected to transform Redwire Corp (RDW) into a global leader in multi-domain autonomous technology, broadening their portfolio.
- Redwire Corp (RDW) maintained a strong liquidity position with $89.2 million available, a significant improvement over the previous year, indicating financial stability.
Negative Points
- Redwire Corp (RDW) recorded a decrease in revenues to $61.4 million, both sequentially and year-over-year, due to delays in awards and revenue movement.
- The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 million, although it was an improvement from the previous quarter, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
- There were notable delays in contract awards in the US government market due to transitions and budget uncertainties, impacting their backlog growth.
- Redwire Corp (RDW) faced increased production costs and unplanned labor expenses related to new technology development, affecting their profitability.
- The company acknowledged significant commercial market uncertainty in the US defense and government services sector, which could impact future financial performance.
