Bank of America has increased its price target for Array Technologies (ARRY, Financial) from $7 to $8, maintaining a Neutral rating for the company's shares. Array recently priced $300 million in convertible senior notes with a 2.875% interest rate, set to mature in 2031. Following this announcement, the stock experienced a 14% decline, which analysts attribute to hedge-related activity prior to the pricing.
The conversion price has been set at $8.12 per share, representing a 27.5% premium over the previous closing price. This indicates an anticipated dilution of approximately 22%, though this could be mitigated by capped calls if the share price surpasses $12.74. Adjustments in the company's financial model have led to a reduction in the projected 2026 EBITDA by about 9%, while the 2027 forecast has been increased by nearly 5%. These changes are attributed to shifts in regional markets and exposure to lower margins internationally.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 21 analysts, the average target price for Array Technologies Inc (ARRY, Financial) is $8.71 with a high estimate of $13.00 and a low estimate of $5.00. The average target implies an upside of 37.81% from the current price of $6.32. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 24 brokerage firms, Array Technologies Inc's (ARRY, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Array Technologies Inc (ARRY, Financial) in one year is $11.80, suggesting a upside of 86.71% from the current price of $6.32. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) Summary page.
ARRY Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Revenue: $302.4 million, a 97% increase year-over-year and a 10% increase sequentially.
- Adjusted Gross Margin: 26.5%, reflecting expected compression due to legacy agreements and international projects.
- Cash Position: Ending cash balance of $348 million.
- Order Book: Maintained at $2 billion, with an 18% increase in contracting compared to the previous quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $40.6 million, with a margin of 13.4%.
- Net Income: $2.3 million, compared to a net loss of $11.3 million in the prior year.
- Diluted Income Per Share: $0.02, compared to a loss of $0.07 in the prior year.
- Adjusted Net Income: $19.7 million, up from $9 million in the prior year.
- Free Cash Flow: A use of $15.4 million, compared to $45.1 million generated in the prior year.
- Leverage Ratio: Net debt leverage ratio of 1.8 times.
- Full-Year Revenue Guidance: Expected to be between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion.
- Adjusted Gross Margin Guidance: Expected to be within the range of 29% to 30% for the full year.
- Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Expected to range between $180 million and $200 million.
- Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Guidance: Anticipated to be between $0.60 and $0.70.
- Free Cash Flow Guidance: Expected to be between $115 million and $130 million for 2025.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Array Technologies Inc (ARRY, Financial) reported a strong first quarter with a 97% increase in revenue year-over-year, reaching $302 million.
- The company achieved a 143% increase in volume growth over the prior year, marking the second largest quarter of volume shipped since Q2 of 2023.
- Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) maintained a robust order book valued at $2 billion, with an 18% increase in contracting compared to the previous quarter.
- The company has strengthened its management team with the addition of several solar industry veterans, enhancing leadership both domestically and internationally.
- Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) is seeing strong traction with its new product offerings, such as OmniTrack and SkyLink, which accounted for 15% of revenue in Q1 and 30% of new bookings.
Negative Points
- The company is facing near-term policy-related headwinds, including ongoing tariff negotiations and potential shifts in the Inflation Reduction Act.
- First quarter adjusted gross margin was compressed to 26.5% due to impacts from legacy volume commitment agreements and large international lower margin projects.
- Array Technologies Inc (ARRY) anticipates potential project delays due to current market uncertainties, including tariffs and commodity price increases.
- The devaluation of the Brazilian real and newly introduced tariffs on solar components have significantly slowed market growth in Brazil.
- The company is experiencing moderate commodity-related ASP declines in its legacy operations and slightly higher ASP declines internationally.
