TC Energy (TRP, Financial) has started collecting tolls from the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) for its Southeast Gateway pipeline, with payments for May being received on schedule as outlined in their contract. The company is actively collaborating with the newly formed Comision Nacional de Energia to secure approval for their regulated rates promptly. This approval is essential to offer services to potential future users of the Southeast Gateway pipeline, apart from CFE, who may require interruptible service.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO of TC Energy, acknowledged the completion of the Southeast Gateway pipeline as a testament to the dedication of their team, CFE, and the Ministry of Energy, in fostering Mexico's growing energy requirements and future economic growth.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 5 analysts, the average target price for TC Energy Corp (TRP, Financial) is $51.56 with a high estimate of $54.99 and a low estimate of $43.17. The average target implies an upside of 7.50% from the current price of $47.96. More detailed estimate data can be found on the TC Energy Corp (TRP) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 6 brokerage firms, TC Energy Corp's (TRP, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.8, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for TC Energy Corp (TRP, Financial) in one year is $40.92, suggesting a downside of 14.68% from the current price of $47.96. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the TC Energy Corp (TRP) Summary page.
TRP Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 01, 2025
- Net Capital Expenditures: Expected to be between $5.5 billion and $6 billion for 2025.
- Assets into Service: $8.5 billion of assets expected to be placed into service in 2025.
- EBITDA Outlook 2025: Reaffirmed at $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, representing a 7% to 9% increase over 2024.
- EBITDA Outlook 2027: Targeted at $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion, implying a 5% to 7% three-year growth rate.
- Bruce Power Availability: Achieved 87% availability in Q1, with full-year 2025 expected in the low 90% range.
- Alberta Cogen Fleet Availability: Delivered 98% availability in Q1.
- Average Realized Price: $106 per megawatt hour, up $12 from Q1 2024.
- Dividend Growth: 25 consecutive years of dividend growth.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- TC Energy Corp (TRP, Financial) reported a strong start to 2025 with safety incident rates at five-year lows.
- The company completed the Southeast Gateway project 13% below budget, enhancing long-term cash flow.
- TC Energy Corp (TRP) is on track to place $8.5 billion of assets into service in 2025, with projects tracking approximately 15% below budget.
- The Northwoods project, a $900 million expansion of the ANR pipeline system, is backed by a 20-year take-or-pay contract.
- The Bruce Power Major Component Replacement program is expected to add significant long-term value by extending the life of Unit 5 by over 35 years.
Negative Points
- Approval from the National Energy Commission (CNE) is still pending for the Southeast Gateway project, delaying its in-service date.
- The power and energy solutions business experienced lower contributions from Bruce due to planned outages and ongoing refurbishments.
- Natural gas storage contributions were lower compared to the exceptional performance in early 2024.
- The company remains above its 4.75 times debt-to-EBITDA target for 2025, indicating elevated leverage.
- There is uncertainty regarding the regulatory framework in Canada, which could impact future infrastructure development and LNG projects.
