The latest read on China's housing market came in weaker than expected. New-home sales from the country's 100 largest developers slid to 339 billion yuan ($47.3 billion) in June, marking a 23% drop from a year ago, per preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. It's another sign that the four-year real estate downturn isn't done yet. While sales rose 14.7% from May, the uptick may have more to do with seasonality than a real inflection. Analysts tracking the sector say last year's stimulus has largely faded — and the drag on consumer confidence remains heavy.
Premier Li Qiang has pledged to step in with more housing support, but expectations for a major pivot remain low. According to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Duncan Wrigley, China appears to be settling into a “slow recovery” mode. That means the government may continue deploying piecemeal policies instead of a big bang bailout. With domestic consumption still fragile and U.S. tariffs putting pressure on exports, the property market is becoming a critical lever in Beijing's economic strategy. The question now is whether they'll act fast enough — or let the pain stretch into 2025.
For global investors, the implications are growing harder to ignore. Tesla (TSLA, Financial), along with other multinationals tethered to Chinese demand, could see volatility ahead if sentiment deteriorates further. A sluggish housing market not only suppresses spending but also erodes economic momentum across supply chains. If policymakers don't shore up confidence soon, investors may need to reassess risk exposure — not just in China, but in global cyclicals that depend on it.
