Goldman Sach: Circle (CRCL) Shares Could Crash 54% After Soaring Post-IPO

Goldman Hits Brakes on Circle Stock, Sees Big Valuation Risk and 54% Downside

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Jul 02, 2025
Summary
  • Despite Circle’s stablecoin strength, Goldman sees limited upside and flags major downside risk
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July 1 - Goldman Sachs has given Circle Internet (CRCL, Financial) a "Hold" rating with a $83 price target, implying more than 54% downside from current levels.

Analyst James Yaro notes that Circle's 484% share price surge since its IPO has pushed its valuation to an elevated level. He believes the company's growth prospects remain intact but prefers to stay on the sidelines until the stock aligns more closely with fundamentals.

Circle is seeking to strengthen its U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoin infrastructure by applying to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust bank charter. If approved, this would allow Circle to custody its own reserves and hold crypto assets on behalf of institutional clients.

As the sole issuer of USD Coin, the world's second‑largest stablecoin, Circle may benefit from broader stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity. The firm is also forging partnerships in programmable payment interfaces and on‑chain treasury solutions, moves that could bolster its fee‑based revenue.

Despite these initiatives, Goldman Sachs sees limited near‑term upside for the stock. A clearer regulatory framework and stronger valuation alignment may be needed before investors return in force.

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