Apple (AAPL, Financial) could see steadier iPhone shipments even as Jefferies trims global smartphone volumes by up to 4% through 2027. U.S. tariff-driven pull-in demand in 2Q25 and robust 618 discounts in China lifted Apple's volumes by 4%, prompting the upgrade amid a downtick elsewhere.
Jefferies analysts cut their 2025–27 smartphone volume forecasts by 2–4%, citing weak innovation, an uncertain economy, bloated Android inventories and fading subsidies in China after a tariff-driven surge this quarter.
Their checks show overall smartphone unit growth in China's 618 shopping festival rose just 4% YoY—below last year's 6%—yet Apple's targeted six-week 6.18 discount drove iPhone volumes up 19% YoY versus 7% last year, lifting quarter-to-date China growth to roughly 10%.
By contrast, Android shipments eked out only 1% YoY growth during 618, with Huawei and other Android OEMs likely down 4% overall and facing about 50 days of inventory. Jefferies warns that high pre-618 stockpiles will force deeper discounts in 2H25, and it has cut its Android-driven 5G handset forecasts accordingly.
Why It Matters: Apple's ability to harness localized promotions and pull-in demand may cushion it against a broader smartphone slowdown and support better-than-expected unit growth.
Investors will watch whether Apple sustains discount-driven momentum and whether Android makers can clear excess inventory when Jefferies publishes its next quarterly update.
