- E-commerce sales projected to grow 8.5% to $1.27 trillion in 2025
- Online retail market share expected to increase to 23.5% in 2025
- Total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion from 2020-2024
FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN, Financial) has released its 2025 U.S. Online Retail Report, projecting that e-commerce sales will climb to $1.27 trillion, marking an 8.5% increase from the previous year. According to the report, the e-commerce market share is anticipated to rise to 23.5% in 2025, up from 22.7% in 2024. However, the growth rate is expected to decelerate, with market share potentially plateauing around 30% by 2030.
The analysis shows that from 2020 to 2024, total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion, though inflation accounted for 40% of this growth. Online retail sales alone surpassed pre-pandemic projections by $932 billion, driven by altered shopping patterns during the COVID period. However, inflation-adjusted sales growth has been marginal or negative since 2023 as the retail sector faces challenges in generating real growth.
To adapt to the evolving market, brands are shifting towards retail partnerships and omnichannel strategies, moving away from traditional direct-to-consumer (DTC) models. This transformation is essential as consumer preferences now demand value delivery across multiple shopping platforms.
FTI Consulting's findings emphasize the dynamic changes within the online retail landscape, highlighting the necessity for strategic investments and scalability in the ever-evolving e-commerce sector.
