Consumers are gearing up for Amazon's (AMZN, Financial) Prime Day and various retail promotions. Adobe predicts that online spending from July 8 to 11 will reach a record $23.8 billion, a 28.4% increase from last year. This forecast is equivalent to two "Black Fridays," with the 2024 holiday season Black Friday online sales at $10.8 billion.
Mobile shopping is expected to hit a new high, contributing $12.5 billion, accounting for 52.5% of total online sales. Discounts are anticipated to remain historically high. Back-to-school shopping, typically starting mid-August to early September, is expected to begin early. Adobe also projects a 3200% increase in traffic driven by generative AI. The use of "buy now, pay later" services may see a slight uptick as budget-conscious consumers seek flexible spending options.
In 2024, Amazon set a new U.S. sales record of $14.2 billion during Prime Day, an 11% increase. The average order value was $57.97, with typical household spending around $152. Over 200 million Prime members participated globally, with independent sellers, mainly small to medium businesses, selling over 200 million items. Electronics, clothing, home goods, and beauty products were the top-selling categories, with smart home devices and back-to-school supplies standing out.
This year, Amazon will offer millions of exclusive deals across 35 categories, including electronics, apparel, beauty, and home products. Top brands like Levi's (LEVI), Dyson, Samsung, ASUS, Celsius (CELH), and Sony (SONY) will feature alongside Amazon's own devices. Historically, Amazon's stock price rises an average of 2% in the week following Prime Day, with a cumulative increase of over 4% six weeks after the event.
