Goldman Sachs has restarted its analysis of Geron (GERN, Financial) by assigning a Sell rating and setting a price target of $1, implying a potential 31% decline in value. The company's flagship product, Rytelo, which marks its first foray into the commercial drug market, has not met expectations in its initial launch. The outlook for the immediate future of Rytelo remains restrained, as noted by the analyst in a recent communication to investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for Geron Corp (GERN, Financial) is $3.69 with a high estimate of $6.00 and a low estimate of $1.50. The average target implies an upside of 156.08% from the current price of $1.44. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Geron Corp (GERN) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 9 brokerage firms, Geron Corp's (GERN, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
GERN Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 07, 2025
- Q1 RYTELO Net Revenues: $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4.
- Cash and Marketable Securities: Approximately $457.5 million as of March 31, 2025.
- Research and Development Expenses: $15.1 million for Q1 2025, down from $29.4 million in Q1 2024.
- Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses: $40 million for Q1 2025, up from $27.1 million in Q1 2024.
- Total Operating Expenses Forecast: Expected to be in the range of $270 million to $285 million for fiscal year 2025.
- US Covered Lives: Approximately 85% under favorable RYTELO medical coverage policies.
- Sites of Care Utilizing RYTELO: Approximately 900 as of April 2025, an increase of almost 300 new sites since the end of Q4.
- Demand Growth: 10% increase in the current four-week period ending April 2025 compared to the prior four weeks.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- RYTELO's US commercial launch is the top corporate priority, with a focus on increasing brand awareness and expanding prescriber base.
- Geron Corp (GERN, Financial) has a strong financial position with approximately $457.5 million in cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2025.
- The company is implementing strategic enhancements to support US commercial success, including increasing the sales team by more than 20%.
- RYTELO has received positive feedback for its efficacy and manageable safety profile, particularly in hard-to-treat lower-risk MDS patients.
- Geron Corp (GERN) is pursuing a disciplined approach to EU commercialization, leveraging third-party partnerships to minimize investment.
Negative Points
- Q1 RYTELO net revenues were $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4, attributed to inventory drawdown among distributors.
- Demand for RYTELO was relatively flat, with only a 1% increase in the 13-week period ending March 28 compared to the prior 13 weeks.
- The company is facing challenges in expanding RYTELO's use in earlier lines of treatment, with most usage currently in the third-line plus setting.
- There is hesitancy among some healthcare providers to switch patients from standard care to RYTELO, partly due to concerns about cytopenias.
- Geron Corp (GERN) is still in the process of identifying a permanent Chief Executive Officer, with a decision expected within the next six months.
