July 10 - Tesla is currently navigating through several crises. The Q2 delivery results achieved by Tesla show that they delivered 384,122 vehicles, slightly below the 389,000 consensus but well above the lowest scouting number of 365,000. The gap suggests a more stabilizing demand environment following the sharp 57 percent decline in the stock over the past five months, which fell from almost $490 last year to the low 200s in March and April.
Nonetheless, Tesla (TSLA, Financial) might boost orders temporarily because clients are racing to use the expiring EV tax credits under the new law known as the Big Beautiful Bill. Yet, focusing more long‑term than on this short‑term tailwind, the bigger picture is that the company, with its FSD, robotaxis, robotics, energy storage (and so on), is exactly what justifies the bull thesis. That is, energy sales, which increased by around 66 percent year‑on‑year to around $3 bn last quarter, may soon develop into a standalone $200 bn business should growth rates continue.
Tesla also has a structural advantage over competitors on the autonomous front with its expansive, firmly integrated data network and AI. However, there are regulatory challenges and safety concerns regarding the launch of full‑self‑driving beta and robotaxis, so execution risk remains high. In the meantime, Musk's third‑party venture and the slowdown in tax‑credit revenues are new sources of headline risk, likely to drive volatility yet not collapse long‑term fundamentals.
Investors will also be very interested in the July 23 earnings disclosure, in which the Street sees Tesla reporting $22.61 billion in revenue and $0.43 in normalized EPS, to determine whether the company was able to use delivery strength to become more financially stable. Should margins sustain and sources of growth remain as is, then the stock could have seen its worst of it all.
