Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander has adjusted his rating for Nutrien (NTR, Financial) from Buy to Hold, setting a new price target of $66, which is an increase from the prior $63. The analyst notes that Nutrien's shares have gained from disruptions in the fertilizer supply chain this year. However, the current share price seems to already reflect this positive earnings momentum, with consensus estimates likely reaching their peak by mid-2026.
Looking ahead to 2027, the focus is expected to shift towards potential supply shocks in nitrogen and potash, which could apply pressure to nitrogen margins and create potential risks for Nutrien. Investors are advised to be cautious of these looming challenges.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 19 analysts, the average target price for Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) is $64.05 with a high estimate of $75.00 and a low estimate of $56.00. The average target implies an upside of 5.35% from the current price of $60.80. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 23 brokerage firms, Nutrien Ltd's (NTR, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.3, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) in one year is $50.65, suggesting a downside of 16.69% from the current price of $60.8. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Summary page.
NTR Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Nutrien Ltd (NTR, Financial) maintained its 2025 full-year guidance ranges, indicating confidence in its operational performance and capital allocation priorities.
- Fertilizer market fundamentals have strengthened, supported by strong global demand and tight supplies, benefiting Nutrien Ltd (NTR).
- US retail fertilizer sales volumes increased by 8% in April compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting strong fertilizer application rates.
- Nutrien Ltd (NTR) completed two acquisitions in the US, adding high-quality assets with a strong strategic fit within its retail network.
- The company is on track to achieve its $200 million target for consolidated annual cost savings in 2025, one year earlier than originally planned.
Negative Points
- Weather-related delays reduced crop input sales in the US and Australia, impacting Nutrien Ltd (NTR)'s retail adjusted EBITDA.
- Adjusted EBITDA for the Potash segment was down from the prior year due to lower net selling prices.
- Higher natural gas costs and lower equity earnings from the investment in Profertil negatively impacted the nitrogen operating segment's adjusted EBITDA.
- Phosphate segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased due to lower production volumes and higher input costs.
- The company faces potential risks related to trade disruptions, which could impact its operations and market conditions.
