Fluence Energy (FLNC, Financial) has been downgraded by Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi from an Outperform rating to Neutral, with a revised price target of $10, up from the previous $6. This change comes in the wake of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which is anticipated to significantly influence the clean energy landscape over the coming years.
According to Mizuho, the bill accelerates the expiration of solar and wind tax credits and mandates that projects commence construction within a year to qualify for the full tax benefits. The firm anticipates that adherence to upcoming Treasury guidelines, due within 45 days, may pose challenges. Consequently, Mizuho now favors domestic upstream manufacturers and residential leasing over utility solar developers and system manufacturers, leading to a downgraded outlook for several firms in the sector.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 21 analysts, the average target price for Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC, Financial) is $7.64 with a high estimate of $30.00 and a low estimate of $2.00. The average target implies an downside of 6.45% from the current price of $8.17. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 23 brokerage firms, Fluence Energy Inc's (FLNC, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.8, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC, Financial) in one year is $25.90, suggesting a upside of 217.01% from the current price of $8.17. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) Summary page.
FLNC Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Revenue: $432 million in Q2 2025, with year-to-date revenue at approximately $618 million.
- Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: Approximately 10.4% for the quarter.
- Backlog: Approximately $4.9 billion, with $1.9 billion scheduled for delivery this fiscal year.
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): Increased to $110 million.
- Liquidity: More than $1.1 billion, including $610 million in total cash.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Negative $30 million for the quarter.
- Revised Revenue Guidance for 2025: Midpoint lowered to $2.7 billion.
- Revised Adjusted EBITDA Guidance for 2025: Midpoint lowered to $10 million.
- Operating Expenses: Increased by $10 million year-over-year to $84 million.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC, Financial) reported $432 million in revenue for Q2 2025, exceeding expectations due to early project milestone achievements.
- The company achieved a double-digit adjusted gross profit margin for the seventh consecutive quarter.
- Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) has a robust backlog of approximately $4.9 billion, providing a solid foundation for future growth.
- The company ended the quarter with over $1 billion in liquidity, including $610 million in cash, demonstrating strong financial health.
- Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) launched its innovative Smartstack technology, receiving positive feedback and securing its first contract, which is expected to enhance customer value and operational efficiency.
Negative Points
- The recent increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports has introduced significant economic uncertainty, impacting near-term customer decision-making and project execution.
- Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) revised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance downward by $700 million due to tariff-related headwinds.
- The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $30 million for the quarter, attributed to fixed operating costs and backend-loaded revenue.
- There is a pause in the execution of some US contracts and the signing of new ones due to tariff uncertainties, affecting the company's revenue outlook.
- Fluence Energy Inc (FLNC) faces challenges in the global supply chain, with a heavy reliance on Chinese battery production, limiting diversification options.