Carnival (CCL, Financial) is experiencing significant interest in call options trading, with a total of 32,266 call options traded, which is 1.3 times the expected volume. This increased activity is accompanied by a rise in implied volatility, which has climbed by over one point to reach 37.01%. Among the options, the August 2025 $30 calls and December 2025 $20 calls are particularly popular, with their combined volume nearing 10,300 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio currently stands at 0.19, indicating a strong preference for calls over puts. Investors are also looking ahead to the company’s earnings report, slated for release on September 30th.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 20 analysts, the average target price for Carnival Corp (CCL, Financial) is $30.13 with a high estimate of $35.00 and a low estimate of $24.00. The average target implies an upside of 3.18% from the current price of $29.20. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Carnival Corp (CCL) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms, Carnival Corp's (CCL, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.9, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Carnival Corp (CCL, Financial) in one year is $20.95, suggesting a downside of 28.25% from the current price of $29.2. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Carnival Corp (CCL) Summary page.
CCL Key Business Developments
Release Date: June 24, 2025
- Revenue: Achieved record revenues for eight consecutive quarters with yields growing by almost 6.5%.
- EBITDA: Up 26% year over year, with margins 200 basis points higher than 2019 levels.
- Operating Income: Increased by 67% year over year.
- Net Income: More than tripled year over year, exceeding guidance by $185 million.
- Yields: Increased by 6.4%, outperforming guidance by 200 basis points.
- Customer Deposits: Reached an all-time high, up over $250 million versus the prior year.
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): Surpassed 12.5%, more than doubling in less than two years.
- EBITDA per ALBD Growth: Achieved 52% growth above the 2023 baseline.
- Cruise Costs without Fuel: Up 3.5% year over year, 200 basis points better than expected.
- Interest Income and Expense: Favorability of $8 million driven by higher interest income and debt pre-payment.
- Fuel Consumption and Mix: Favorability worth $18 million due to improved energy efficiency.
- Full Year Net Income Guidance: Improved by $200 million to approximately $2.7 billion.
- Full Year Yield Guidance: Increased to 5% higher than 2024 levels.
- Debt Refinancing: Prepaid $350 million of notes and refinanced remainder, reducing net interest expense by over $20 million.
- Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio: Improved from 4.1 times to 3.7 times by the end of the second quarter.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Carnival Corp (CCL, Financial) achieved record revenues for the eighth consecutive quarter, with EBITDA and operating income reaching new second-quarter highs.
- Net income exceeded guidance by $185 million, driven by strong ticket prices and onboard spending.
- The company surpassed its 2026 targets for EBITDA per ALBD growth and ROIC 18 months ahead of schedule.
- Customer deposits reached an all-time high, indicating strong future demand.
- Carnival Corp (CCL) is launching new destinations like Celebration Key and expanding existing ones, which are expected to enhance guest experiences and drive future revenue.
Negative Points
- The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East presents uncertainty, although it has not yet impacted business.
- Third-quarter cruise costs are expected to be higher due to new destination openings and other factors.
- The new loyalty program will initially impact yields negatively due to revenue deferral, with benefits expected only after two years.
- Volatility in booking patterns was observed, particularly in April, affecting the overall trajectory.
- Despite strong performance, the company acknowledges that the upside potential for the second half of the year is not as high as initially expected due to global uncertainties.
