ASML (ASML) Lowers 2024 Growth Forecast Amid Trade Tensions

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Jul 16, 2025
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ASML Holding NV (ASML, Financial) CEO Christophe Fouquet has withdrawn the company's growth forecast for next year due to trade disputes and global tensions. While ASML is preparing for growth in 2026, the current uncertainties prevent confirmation of this outlook. ASML's shares in Amsterdam fell by 7.1%, marking the largest drop since April, with a 33% decline over the past year.

CFO Roger Dassen highlighted potential tariff threats on new systems and components shipped to the U.S., which could negatively impact ASML's gross margins. Although semiconductors are currently exempt from U.S. tariffs, the impact on chip manufacturing equipment remains uncertain. The chaotic policy rollout by the Trump administration has disrupted markets and complicated large-scale spending plans.

ASML expects third-quarter net sales between 7.4 billion and 7.9 billion euros, lower than anticipated, with a projected annual revenue growth of 15%. The company's second-quarter orders reached 5.5 billion euros, surpassing analyst expectations. Despite the lowered outlook, the ongoing AI boom is expected to benefit ASML, as its technology is crucial for producing advanced chips used in AI infrastructure.

ASML faces restrictions in selling to China, its second-largest market in Q1, due to U.S.-led limitations. However, recent signs of easing tensions between the Trump administration and Beijing could bode well for ASML.

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I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.